Showing posts with label Trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trade. Show all posts

Saturday, March 1, 2008

Commodity Trading To Turn A Costly Affair

Mumbai: Introduction of commodity transaction tax (CTT) similar to that of securities transaction tax (STT) seems to have not gone well with the exchanges and broking firms alike.

Apart from the 12 per cent service tax, the Union budget has added an expenditure of 6 per cent as exchange levy and Rs 17 per lakh as CTT. These together are likely to increase the cost of trading in commodity futures by more than 800 per cent.

When STT was introduced in the securities market it was allowed to set off losses against profits from similar business. Moreover, the long and short term capital gains benefits extended to securities market has not been extended to commodities trading.

Jignesh Shah, MD & CEO, MCX, said: “Commodities markets are global asset class and trade flows to most efficient markets which has least trading cost. With the addition of commodities trading tax, Indian market will become unusable for risk management.”

P. H. Ravi Kumar, MD, NCDEX said: “Unlike securities markets, commodity markets perform the essential function of price discovery and the CTT will adversely affect the price discovery process. If and when CTT is to be introduced in commodity markets in future, it has to be done only with the related benefits already extended to the securities markets.”

Broking firms expect the volumes to come down as the cost of trading goes up. Sushil Sinha, Assistant General Manager, Karvy Commodities, said: “Introduction of CTT will shoo away investors and will also impact intra-day volumes. Liquidity may come under pressure”.

Dilip Bhatia, Director, Kotak Commodity Services, said: “CTT will affect the viability of trades for short term traders and arbitrageurs. In addition introduction of service tax on the services of commodity exchanges will further affect commodity businesses.”

Naveen Mathur, Head - Angel Commodities, said: “CTT would act as a dampner to commodities trading, being still in a nascent stage.”

On the positive, Jayant Manglik, Head - Commodity Business, Religare Commodities, said: “The Centre’s move shows increase in the government interest in expanding the commodity futures markets in line with equity markets and is a reiteration of the fact that investing in commodities is now an accepted investment avenue like in developed countries. It will also increase tax-compliance by default because the tax will be levied at the time of trading itself.”

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Industry, Trade Upbeat On Palm Oil Price Outlook

Kuala Lumpur: A day ahead of the much-awaited annual Palm Oil Price Outlook organised by Bursa Malaysia, the mood within the vegetable oil industry and trade, especially among producers and exporters, is absolutely upbeat. And why not? Run-up to Budget 2008-09

The market has gone through an unprecedented period of bullrun that has taken prices to four digits in dollar terms, a stark contrast with the long bear run of 2001-2002.

Driving factors

Currently both crude palm oil and soyabean oil are trading well above the psychological $1,000 a tonne, nearly five times higher than prices 5-6 years ago; and twice the rates traded in 2006.

What changed in the recent years?

An unusual combination of factors - robust surge in demand, supply uncertainties and fund play - are currently seen driving the commodities market in general, and vegetable oil market, in particular, up.

Asset class

Importantly, commodities are now an asset class in the league of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange and real estate. Last one year, some commodities such as gold have outperformed other traditional asset classes.

Obviously, there is a larger flow of funds for trading commodities; and when the market fundamentals face uncertainties or imbalances - such as the one vegetable oil market is currently facing - can funds lag behind?

Trading volumes

Trading volumes in the futures counters have grown rapidly. Whether Bursa Malaysia for crude palm oil or Chicago Board of Trade for soyabean oil, trade transactions are exploding.

The interest in vegetable oils is heightened by other factors such as the crude market, ocean freight rates and exchange rate.

Will crude palm oil reach ringgit 4,000 a tonne or is there a possibility of correction down to around ringgit 3,000? Bursa Malaysia has lined up several expert speakers from around the world to present their perceptive analysis of the current global vegetable oil market dynamics and expectations of the shape of things to come.

Analysis meet

The keynote speech will be delivered by the Guest-of-honour, Dr Peter Chin Fah Kui, Malaysia’s Minister for Plantation Industries and Commodities.

Dr James Fry of LMC International will speak on the lessons we can learn from the past bull markets and Thomas Mielke, Hamburg-based editor of Oil World, will share his thoughts on the reactions of the world vegetable oil market to challenges from the energy market.

Dorab Mistry, Director of the London-based Godrej International, will present a paper on palm oil price outlook with special reference to India. There will also be experts speakers on palm oil producers’ perspectives and soya oil complex outlook.

A special session on biodiesel too has been organised. About 1,700 participants are expected to turn up for the event.

Monday, February 25, 2008

Maize Futures Expected To Trade Higher

Mumbai: Despite estimates of higher rabi production, maize futures on NCDEX are expected to trade on the higher side in the near-to-medium term on strong demand from Australia, Sri Lanka, the Philippines and Nepal. Run-up to Budget 2008-09

Till February, India exported 5-lakh tonnes compared with 4.5-lakh tonnes shipped during the same period of the previous year. Global corn production estimates are around 766.23 million tonnes (mt) compared with 704.1 mt last year.

Export demand

According to USDA Report released recently, India’s production in 2007-08 is projected at 16.3 mt against 14.98 mt last year, up 8.81 per cent. Rabi crop from Northern States and a small quantity from Andhra Pradesh are expected to arrive next fortnight. “The quality of rabi crop is not suited for export. The entire export demand has to be met by the kharif produce,” said Harish Galipalli, Karvy Commodities.

Further, lack of carry forward stocks may support prices on the higher side. The country is expected to produce 16.3 mt. Domestic consumption is pegged at 15.4 mt and exports at 5-lakh tonnes.

Future Trend

Maize futures on NCDEX rallied by Rs 140 per quintal in January despite higher output this year. Most active April contracts moved up from a low of Rs 790 per quintal in January to Rs 928. Strong export enquiries and declining kharif arrivals supported the prices. However, the bull run halted and fell to a low of Rs 805 by mid-February after outbreak of bird flu in West Bengal.

“Outbreak of bird flu in West Bengal and Bangladesh suppressed the prices. Wholesale prices of broilers and eggs plunged by 20-25 per cent across the country resulting in a slowdown in demand for poultry feed sector,” Galipalli said.

However, the bearish trend is set to reverse in the coming days. The April contract is retracing back after witnessing a decline to Rs 791 levels. Prices have risen from Rs 808 per quintal to Rs 843 in the last one week. “We recommend going long at Rs 830-835 levels for possible target of Rs 870 and then Rs 885-900 with stop loss below 800 levels,” he said.