Monday, March 31, 2008

Gold May Test Support Levels

Comex gold futures fell sharply lower on Friday, due to softer oil prices and a rise in the dollar. The dollar edged higher, but hovered not far from record lows against the euro, after the US data showed that the inflation pressures were tamed in February — affirming expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to boost a weakening economy. However, the weakness in the dollar is still exhausted, and with interest rates expected to fall further, the outlook for medium-term to long-term still looks bullish for gold.

Comex April gold futures moved perfectly in line with our expectations. As expected, rallies to $955-960 capped the upside for now. We have seen this pattern re-occur over and over again in the past two years in gold. A steep fall will be followed by a minor pullback and then a fall lower again, only to make a new high subsequently. Though we are not suggesting a new high from here, it is important to watch $961-965 levels now. We favour a corrective fall towards $898 levels or even lower towards $877 as long as $961-965 continues to cap the upside. We believe that the third wave could have ended at $732 and the fourth wave consolidation at $665, and the fifth wave is in progress. There are now signs that the fifth wave could have ended. A possible A-B-C correction lower is in the offing. RSI is in the neutral zone and indicating a negative divergence is a sign of possible intermediate top. The averages in MACD are still above the zero line of the indicator, suggesting bullishness to be intact. Only a crossover below the zero line will indicate bearishness. Therefore, expect gold futures to test the support levels.

Supports are at $916, 898 & 877. Resistances are at $943, 955 & 965.

Copper Prices May Rule Weak, Not Withstanding Recent Rally

Mumbai: Despite the recent rally in copper prices, the overall undertone still remains bearish with a decline in Chinese and the US demand expected in second quarter of the calendar year.

Copper prices in the first quarter of 2008 have gained about 26 per cent and it was quoting at $8,180 a tonne on Friday. The three-month futures contract on LME was quoting at $8,350 per tonne.

Warehouse holdings

On Friday, copper inventory in LME warehouses came down by 825 tonnes to 1.17 lakh tonnes, just enough for two days of world consumption. The inventory holding has shrunk over 40 per cent since January. However, in China, the largest consumer of copper, it is piling up. Shanghai Futures Exchange accredited warehouses report a 200 per cent jump in warehouse holdings to 61,233 tonnes.

Institutional investors and hedge funds have been chasing metals in the last three months after the dollar lost its sheen against major currencies. Buoyant demand from China and concerns over supply from mines also helped copper sustain a higher price level. China’s copper consumption is expected to rise 11 per cent to 1.28 million tonnes (mt) in Q1 of 2008. China’s copper import rose 4.6 per cent to 2.39 lakh tonnes in January against 2.24 lakh tonnes in December last, an increase of 6.27 per cent — the highest since April last year.

“The import figures indicate that the shipments to China will slowdown in the coming days at it has already stored huge quantities of copper,” said Kishore Narne, Vice-President, Head-Commodity Research, Anand Rathi. The demand in China rose by 35 per cent to 4.861 mt in 2007, accounting for nearly quarter of world demand, which is estimated at 17.92 mt.

Production to be hit

World copper mine production is expected to increase by 7.6 per cent to 17 mt in 2008, owing to new mine development and increased capacity utilisation. Recent snowfall and extremely cold weather conditions in China, for the last two months, have disrupted mining activity. Moreover, power shortage in South Africa is expected to curtail mining activity. The country seems to have lost almost 10 per cent of production in February.

Global refined copper production in 2008 is estimated to increase by 4.6 per cent to 18.57 mt.

Many smelters in China have shut shop indefinitely due to power shortage. Problems for smelters in and around Beijing seem to be more acute as they have been told to stop production to control pollution ahead of forthcoming Olympic Games.

“An increase in operating expenditure due to higher power cost, delay in new refinery capacity additions due to equipment shortage and capex cost increase should have a negative impact on mining and refining activities in 2008,” said Narne.

Sharp Price Rise In Coarse Grains This Year

Coimbatore: Coarse grains have recorded sharp price increase this year with the hike ranging between 15 to 28 per cent. Sorghum (jowar) touched a peak of Rs 10,500 per tonne this week as compared to its peak rate of Rs 7,700 the same time last year, a rise of about 26 per cent.

The average monthly price of jowar has surged this year to Rs 9,750 per tonne as against last year’s price of Rs 8,450, according to a US Grains Council India reports’ price bulletin for the week ending March 28.

The barley prices which climbed up to Rs 9,968 per tonne are also higher this year by 28 per cent compared to last year, with the monthly average price ruling at Rs 10,080, up by 26 per cent over last year’s average monthly price of Rs 7,950 per tonne.

In the case of pearl millet (bajra), the grain closed this week at Rs 7,300 per tonne , some 14 per cent higher than last year’s level and its average monthly price for March 2008 stood at Rs 7,000 per tonne as against Rs 6,750 a tonne last year.

In the case of maize, its prices stood stable at Rs 7,200 per tonne, marginally up by one per cent compared to the price the same time last year, the report added.

Maize Prices May Remain Volatile In Short Term

Coimbatore: Maize prices are expected to remain high in medium and long term, though they may be volatile in the short term, thanks to all round higher consumption demand, according to two delegates from the US associated with the US Grains Council who recently travelled to India meeting the members connected with the starch, poultry and feed sectors.

The US members, Dr Simla Tokgoz, a research associate at Food Agriculture Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa state university, and Ken Wardsworth, a farmer member of the Council from Michigan state, pointed out the increased commodity price was not on account of biofuels only.

The growing economy in countries such as India, China and Brazil was behind the increased commodities prices, they noted.

A higher demand of meat, milk and eggs by high-income middle class in the country is a factor in this increased demand of corn in India, a US Grains Council’s report quoted the two as saying in their recent interaction with the industry delegates consuming maize.

The US members visited Ahmedabad, Mumbai and Coimbatore to meet the members of the poultry, feed and starch industries. According to Dr Simla, China would in near future not sell its maize as its domestic demand was rapidly growing.

In the case of India, despite increased domestic maize production, its rising demand due to increased needs from poultry, starch and dairy sectors, will turn it a net importer by 2015. The demand in Brazil too was high where livestock production was on the rise due to increased investments and export opportunities of value added products.

The US crop would be enough to supply to the world needs though there would be increased usage of maize for bio-fuel production following the mandate by that country to produce 15 billion gallons (56.7 billion litres) by 2020.

The end-users of maize will need to change the way they do business and hedge in the futures market to manage risks. They will need to add different value to their products in their portfolio to increase profitability, the Council’s report quoted them as saying in their ‘maize presentation’ to the Indian end-users.

Pepper Futures Decline

Kochi: The pepper futures market continued to witness a decline during the week though the sentiment has been bullish, of late, due to un-seasonal rains over the last 10 days combined with thin arrivals at the terminal market.

All the contracts on the exchanges fell. On NCDEX, the drop was from Rs 550-644 a quintal while on the NMCE it was from Rs 567 to Rs 650 a quintal.

Total turn over on NCDEX increased by 11,340 tonnes to 55,028 tonnes, while on NMCE it moved up by 872 tonnes to 6,458 tonnes.

Total open interest on NCDEX dropped by 1,124 tonnes to 18,534 tonnes during the week, while on NMCE it moved up by 445 tonnes to 2,254 tonnes.

Spot prices also fell by Rs 200 a quintal to close at Rs 14,100 (un-garbled) and Rs 14,700 (MG 1) a quintal during the week.

The quantity of stocks held on the exchanges are said to be low and estimated at 5,500 tonnes. It is expected that about 60 per cent of the crop has been harvested with the majority in the hands of farmers. The bullishness has been shortened by exporters/traders cleaning up their books for the financial year end. MG 1 prices remained at $3,950-4,000 a tonne (c&f) for Apr/May positions.

Vietnam Asta, despite 80-85 per cent of the harvesting is over, remained uncompetitive. However, the prices of 500 and 550 GL eased to $3,600-3,650 and $3,800-3,850 a tonne (f.o.b.) respectively.

In Indonesia, the prices remained at better levels due to domestic activities. Brazil is said to reacting slowly to the easier market and remained uncompetitive at $4,100-4,200 a tonne (c&f). Brazil was offering B Asta at $3,850-3,900 a tonne (f.o.b.) Belem while B1 560 GL at $3,700-3,800 a tonne (f.o.b.) Belem both for Apr/Jun shipments.

Buyers continued to remain on a wait-and-watch mode while the sellers feel that the buying activity would commence shortly for all positions and in all consuming markets.

IPC REPORT

According to International Pepper Community (IPC), black pepper market in general was quiet with limited activity during the week.

In Vietnam, the market was also quiet and prices declined further. Pepper crop is on the peak season. Trade source reported that FOB prices of Vietnamese pepper eased from $3,520 a tonne for black 500g/l to $3,450, while for black pepper 550 g/l declined from $3,720 to $3,600. The strengthening local currency against dollar has also influenced the situation.

In Lampung, local prices were slightly down, with limited activity as stocks at farms has been absorbed by traders. Lampung was reportedly offering at $3,850 a tonne (f.o.b.) declined from $4,000 offered earlier, but they were not keen to sell at lower levels.

In Sarawak local prices were also down by 3 per cent, while f.o.b. prices were reported stable. Brazil was quoted BASTA at $3,850 a tonne (f.o.b.).

In Sri Lanka, average prices of black pepper at pepper growing areas moved up by two per cent from last week’s price.

WHITE PEPPER

The market for white pepper showed a downward trend at sources. In Pangkal Pinang, local prices of Muntok white pepper fell marginally by one per cent after witnessed a significant movements during last week. In Sarawak, prices also eased by one per cent, while f.o.b. prices of Sarawak white were reported stable.

Saturday, March 29, 2008

Aspinwall Extends Operations Into Logistics,Tourism

KOCHI: Aspinwall, a corporate in shipping, coir, plantation and coffee, is all set to enter into logistics and tourism by investing Rs50 crore, said Chief Executive Officer N R Pai on Friday.

Talking to reporters he said the discussion was undergoing with Hitachi Transporting Company, a global logistics company, to float a joint venture for container freight station and barge transports.

Pai said that the company made arrangement with DLF Group for entering into the tourism field. New Delhi based leading real estate developer, DLF Group had acquired property to build heritage hotel at Fortkochi, a major tourist destination in Kerala.

Besides, Aspinwall will conduct a feasibility study to set up green house for farming English vegetables.

Recently, the company was reorganized after a century. The allied companies such as Aspinwall investments, Pullangod Rubber & Produce and Aspinwall & Company Travancore were merged into Aspinwall Company Ltd.

Aspinwall have 18 offices across the country.

FMC To Fall Prey To Hunger In IndiaFMC To Fall Prey To Hunger In India

Will hunger hit Forward Markets Commission’s (FMC) ambitious plans for the future? If things go like this and the message coming out of the Central government are any indication, the big plans of Futures trade is all set to gather dust for some more time.

The government’s reasons are simple. Inflation is ruling at 6.68 per cent, a 13-month high. Again the UPA government at the Centre is gearing up for the elections. A soft Budget by Union finance minister P Chidambaram was a clear indication for that.

The government does not want to spoil the good impression created with the Budget with a Rs 60,000 crore loan waiver by letting the inflation go high. Moreover, the government is already under pressure from the Left on Indo-Us nuclear deal and rising prices.

And, according to the Left and certain other groups in the UPA government, the main reason for inflation is Futures trade in commodities. Even though the Abhijit panel, appointed to study the impact of Futures trade in inflation, recommended that Futures is not to be blamed for inflation, the government and Left parties are not ready to buy that argument.

So, the Centre started the ‘ban Raj’ last year itself. It banned Futures trade in wheat, tur and several other food items in a bid to rein in the rising prices.

But, it seems, nothing has worked. Prices are still going up. And the government is back to square one, still fighting inflation. This time also the victim will be Futures trade. The government will, in all possibility, think more ways to stop Futures trade in several other commodities so that the prices come down.

Even though the finance minister says that the reason for the price rise is a supply problem, most of the UPA partners are not ready to buy that argument.

Here comes the jolt for the FMC. Worried over the price rise, the Centre is unlikely to let Futures trade thrive in India.

It may also try to clip the wings of the FMC. During the past few months the government there were efforts to give FMC autonomy and more powers like the SEBI.

But, if inflation goes up like this, all those plans may go to the backburner.

In January, the government had issued an ordinance, making FMC independent regulatory body like the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) or the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai).

However, the ordinance will lapse on April 7. The hope for the FMC was that by then the Forward Contracts (Regulation) Amendment Bill, 2008 — introduced to replace the Ordinance — will be passed by Parliament.

But, if the situation remains the same, there is a big chance of the Bill facing lot of opposition from the UPA partners itself.

The issue of forward trading in commodities is a politically sensitive one, especially at a time when inflation is at a 13-month high of 6.68 per cent.

Moreover, the government also does not want to be seen as favouring commodities trading, which has often been cited as one of the major reasons for the rising commodity prices.

While the consumer affairs ministry was keen that the Bill be discussed before Parliament went into recess, there seemed to be a lack of political support for the move after the parties cited Futures trading as one of the reasons for the spurt in farm prices in recent weeks.

According to some farmers organizations, the FMC’s autonomy will be opposed by several parties and farmers’ unions if the inflation goes beyond the anticipated levels.

Will Dollar Go Down Even More?

A prudent investor might very well decide to keep his powder dry until the next big investment trend reveals itself.

But thus the big question – what kind of powder to keep?

An investor needs a baseline. He needs to be able to figure out whether he is making progress or backsliding. An American typically keeps score in US Dollars. But there's the rub...

The Dollar is a baseline that keeps moving.

When the Euro came out in 1998, it quickly fell against the Dollar – down from $1.12 to just 88 cents. Of course, that was the era when the Nasdaq was flying and Americans were still the world's most admired people.

Since then, the tech stocks have crashed...the information age has proved a disappointment...the War against Iraq didn't go as planned...housing has gone up – and now down...and Wall Street has shown itself to be as incompetent as the rest of us.

(We all knew Washington was incompetent already.)

And now, as if to underline the point: Europe's esperanto money has risen to $1.55. In terms of what a Dollar will buy in the United States, a Dollar is down around 25% so far this century. In terms of what it will buy in Europe, it is down by about 50%. In terms of Gold, it has shrunk 75%.

So where should an American keep his money? This was a much easier question when the Gold Price was under $500 and the Dollar was worth more than the Euro. Of the three, the Dollar was the last place you wanted to be.

But now the buck is already down. Will it go down even more? Or is it time for A Dollar Rally? Now we're not only uncertain...we're unsure too.

It is still early in the credit crunch. If it crunches hard enough, the Dollar will pop up...squeezed out like a pea from a peapod. On the other hand, there will probably come a time when the Feds bring out the helicopters and begin throwing dollars out of the cargo hatch.

Then, like Germany in the 1920s... Argentina in the '80s...or Zimbabwe today...we'll see some real inflation!

In the meantime, it's probably best to play it safe. Here's what we're doing with our own money: we're splitting our cash into three parts – and putting each third, equally, into Gold (which we expect to double again from here)...Swiss francs, (because we fear the Dollar could fall apart at any moment)...and the dollar itself (because you just never know).

Bill Bonner is founder and owner of Agora Inc., one of America's largest consumer newsletter publishers. Editor of free The Daily Reckoning email – now read by more than 500,000 worldwide – he is also the author of three best-selling investment books, most recently Mobs, Messiahs & Markets (John Wiley, 2007).

RBI Currency Rate: US $ 40.10,Euro-Rs 63.31

MUMBAI: The Reserve Bank of India’s Reference Rate for the US dollar is Rs.40.10 and for Euro is Rs.63.31 on March 28, 2008.
The corresponding rates for the previous day (March 27, 2008) were Rs.40.15 and Rs.63.41 respectively.

Based on the Reference Rate for US dollar and middle rates of the cross currency quotes at 12 noon, the exchange rates of GBP and Japanese Yen against the Rupee are: ! GBP = 80.4045 and 100 yen = 40.21. The corresponding rates on the previous daywere 1 GBP=80.5469 amd 100 Yen =40.54.

Govt To Take Measures To Counter Steel Prices

NEW DELHI: The government will take adequate measures to counter spiraling steel prices after consulting steel exporters, said a top official of Steel Ministry.

Steel Ministry Secretary Raghav sharan Pandey today said that the government would ask steel exporters to formulate tactics to counter the prices. “They have to do more to contain prices” he added. .

The government has withdrawn temporally the Duty Entitlement Pass Book Scheme (DEPB), on Wednesday.

Pointing out that rising steel prices and its inputs, particularly iron ore and coking coal, remain a matter of concern, he said more steps would have to be taken by the industry and government to contain spiraling prices of the alloy. DEPB benefits for steel exporters are slated to end on Monday next.

Suspension of export subsidy available to steel companies under DEPB would fetch the government about Rs 600 crore and go a long way to contain prices and bridge demand-supply mismatch in the sector, Pandey said

Friday, March 28, 2008

Tata Tea To Increase Prices Soon

Tata Tea Ltd (TTL) will shortly increase the prices across all its seven brands. “This will be in line with the move being contemplated by the tea industry in general,” Sangeeta Talwar, Executive Director (Marketing), TTL, told newspersons here on Thursday.

Talwar, however, declined to comment on the extent of increase, except saying that the available reports suggested Rs 7-10 per kg increase in auction prices. TTL sourced nearly 50 per cent of its requirement from the auction, she said.

The company, as it was indicated, would withdraw two of its brands, Nilgiri orthodox and Ceylon orthodox, from the market in view of not-so-encouraging response and would re-launch long leaf Darjeeling orthodox. Nilgiri orthodox and Ceylon orthodox were launched last year.

Referring to the virtual neck-and-neck competition with Hindustan Unilever in upping the share in the branded market, Talwar indicated that TTL would catch up with Hindustan Unilever within a year or so. The estimated size of the branded tea market was 450 million kg valued at Rs 6,500 crore.

Referring to three broad initiatives taken by TTL to improve its performance, she said, “We will carry forward with ‘Jaggo Re’ campaign launched last year which has proved to be successful so far”. As for the initiative to promote football skill among budding talents in partnership with Arcelor, UK, she expressed the view that it was too early to comment on success of it as evaluation had not yet been made.

Finally, more outfits would be launched in Bangalore under ‘Chai Unchai’campaign, the third initiative, before it will be launched in other cities. Among other planned initiatives, there would be more brands in tea bag business.

Jute Crop Size Pegged Lower At 97 Lakh Bales

The size of the 2007-08 jute crop has officially been pegged at 97 lakh bales (of 180 kg each). This follows a meeting of the Jute Advisory Board that was held here under the chairmanship of the Jute Commissioner, Binod Kispotta.

The size of the 2007-08 jute crop has officially been pegged at 97 lakh bales (of 180 kg each). This follows a meeting of the Jute Advisory Board that was held here under the chairmanship of the Jute Commissioner, Binod Kispotta.

The size of the crop during 2006-07 jute year (July-June) was pegged at 100 lakh bales. The stock carried forward to the current jute year 2007-08 was 23 lakh bales. Import of jute from Bangladesh in the current jute year was eight lakh bales. As such, the total raw jute available in the 2007-08 jute year was 128 lakh bales.

Consumption by mills

According to sources, raw jute consumption by the mills sector was around 68 lakh bales till end-February 2008. The sources said if raw jute consumption by jute mills till June 2008 continued to follow the same pattern as hitherto, raw jute consumption by the mills sector in the 2007-08 jute year would be around 95 lakh bales.

With another nine lakh bales being consumed by the domestic sector and other industries, the total consumption in the current jute year is estimated to be around 104 lakh bales. Thus, the carry forward stock to the 2008-09 jute year is expected to be around 24 lakh bales.

Mixed trend in prices

Meanwhile, the price movement of raw jute in Kolkata has witnessed a seesaw trend this jute year. The benchmark TD4 grade of raw jute was quoted at the Jute Balers’ Association here at Rs 1,130 per quintal in the second week of July 2007. It went up to Rs 1,170 per quintal on October 5, 2007, and further up to Rs 1,250 per quintal in December 2007.

Thereafter, the price of the TD4 grade of raw jute in the Kolkata market went down to Rs 1,170 at one point of time in January 2008. On February 15, 2008, the TD grade was quoted at Rs 1,180 per quintal. Currently, it is quoted at Rs 1,355 per quintal at the Jute Balers’ Association here.

Sources in the raw jute trade attributed the fall in the price of the golden fibre in January-February this year to “more-than-normal” imports from Bangladesh. They said that eight lakh bales of raw jute have been imported from Bangladesh in the current jute year. Normally, imports from Bangladesh are of the order of four lakh bales every year.

Pepper Futures Drop On Lack Of Buying

Bear operators on Thursday pulled down the pepper futures market despite not much selling pressure fundamentally.

They pulled down the prices on reports of fall in Vietnam prices. Because of the financial year ending, nobody was buying except exporters who were covering from the exchanges as the prices there were lower than that of spot, market sources told Business Line.

Vietnam was offering V Asta at $3,900-4,000 a tonne (f.o.b.) depending upon the seller, while 500 GL at $3,450 and 550 GL at $3,600 a tonne (f.o.b.).

Indonesia was offering L Asta at $3,850 a tonne (f.o.b.) but they were said to be not keen to sell at lower levels. Brazil said to have quoted $3,700 - $3,750 a tonne (f.o.b.) for B Asta.

Indian parity remained at $3,900-3,950 a tonne (c&f) and still remained competitive in the international market.

CONTRACT POSITION

April contract on NCDEX on Thursday fell by Rs 264 a quintal to Rs 14,648. The fall in other contracts was from Rs 183 to Rs 275 a quintal.

On NMCE April contract dropped by Rs 223 a quintal to Rs 14,550. The fall in other contracts except August was from Rs 126 to Rs 246 a quintal, while August moved up by Rs 232 a quintal.

Total turnover on NCDEX increased by 2,425 tonnes to 11,183 tonnes, while that on NMCE declined by 58 tonnes to 1,138 tonnes.

Total open interest on NCDEX moved up by 740 tonnes to 19,378 tonnes. April position dropped by 48 per cent while May and June moved up by 43 per cent and 7 per cent respectively.

On NMCE, total open interest went up by 151 tonnes to 2,125 tonnes.

Domestic demand was slow.

Spot prices also dropped by Rs 100 a quintal on Thursday to close at Rs 14,100 (un-garbled) and Rs 14,700 (MG1) in tandem with the futures market trend.

Creation Of Farmers’ Debt Relief Fund Cleared

The Union Cabinet on Thursday gave its nod for creation of a Farmers’ Debt Relief Fund with an initial corpus of Rs 10,000 crore. This amount would be transferred from the Consolidated Fund of India to Public Accounts during the financial year 2007-08.

An official spokesperson said that approval was also granted for augmentation of the fund for reimbursing the lending institutions the amount of debt waiver /relief granted by them. In 2007-08, Rs 10,000 crore would be infused into the fund, followed by Rs 15,000 crore in 2008-09, Rs 15,000 crore in 2009-10, Rs 12,000 crore in 2010-11 and Rs 8,314 crore in 2011-12.

The debt waiver/relief scheme has been announced in the Budget Speech 2008-09. The implementation of the said scheme will mitigate the hardships being faced by farmers in general and small and marginal farmers in particular. Upon being granted debt waiver or signing an agreement for debt relief under the one-time settlement, the farmer would be entitled to fresh agricultural loans from banks in accordance with normal rules.

The implementation of the debt waiver and debt relief scheme will be completed by June 30.

Centre Cautious On Food Security Front

As food and commodity prices have flared up the world over but slowed down recently, it is not a crisis situation in India and “we are trying early to manage the availability” through a slew of measures on the supply side, the Secretary, Food, Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution, T. Nanda Kumar, said.

Kumar told Business Line: “At this point of time, Indian prices are probably the lowest on most commodities, particularly in essential items, and we intend to keep it that way in the larger interests of the poor consumers”. He, however, hastened to state that “we do not want to deny the farmers a fair price and therefore, correspondingly there is a substantial increase in minimum support price (MSP) which is addressing the concerns of the farmers”.

Stating that food security is of concern and “we need to be a little cautious”, Mr Kumar said: “We cannot take large risks on food security”. He said that as of now, both rice and wheat productions were looking “quite good” but this does not preclude “our taking advance action to keep stocks for the future particularly in the context of what happened to global prices last year”.

He said as far as stocks by FCI go, “we expect to have a closing stock on April 1, 2008 of one million tonnes more in wheat and hopefully about 2 million tonnes more in rice above buffer stock norms”. With economy growing at a higher gear and Rs 18,000 crore going into employment (NREGS) which beneficiaries might use on more food, the demand for food that was estimated at a conservative basis might go up and that is the cushion we are looking into,” Kumar noted.

Keeping stores

He said earlier there was a comfort factor when global prices were either low or reasonable and the country had enough foreign exchange to import. But now the comfort factor of price had gone and availability, too, had diminished. With many large consumers for wheat in the world, any one of them having a supply shock could also dip into the same market and that is why “we would like to be very careful with retaining as much stocks as we have got, though this does not mean we give up exports”.

Kumar said in the case of rice exports, the Government view is that lower-priced variety of rice should be retained in the country so that the higher-priced and premium varieties get exported. In the global market, price of Thailand rice is $600-650 per tonne and our non-basmati premium varieties’ minimum export price is at $650 per tonne. As basmati rice can legitimately fetch prices above $900 per tonne, “basmati MEP of India is at $900 per tonne to prevent misclassification and not to prevent basmati rice exports,” he added.

Edible oil factors

On the edible oil front, he said, “we imported 4.7 million tonnes last year and I don’t see why we cannot import similar or a slightly higher quantity as import is going to stay. We have to manage edible oil prices below Rs 60 per kg, at the same time not disturbing the edible oil seed farmers”.

That is why a raft of steps including ban on exports and cuts in duty on imported oil were clamped. The argument that non-edible oil should not be banned is a fair one and “in fact there is no intention and if there is some correction to be made that could be made”. Like in the case of rice, the Government is trying to retain the common edible oil for domestic use, he said.

Alongside, he said, the Government has been effecting hike in MSP of important crops and in the case of rice and wheat, this has been particularly sharp in the last two years and the incentivisation has already begun. “There are no guarantees that the international prices would stay at the same higher level, already prices have started coming down”.

On banning of futures in commodities, Kumar said what happened on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) last year and the way wheat behaved was an eye-opener. “I am not sure whether it is pure price discovery or whether commodities have become the most attractive investment portfolio. The jury is still out on this".

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Pepper Futures Fall On Bearish Activities

Kochi: Pepper futures market which has witnessed high volatility during the day declined at close on Wednesday on bearish activities based on reports of drop in Vietnam prices.

Bear speculators were said to be trying to bring down April prices by saying that exporters might not hedge for fear of default. Thus, they are depressing the market, trading sources told Business Line.

Some spot selling was there. Besides, some selling pressure was reported from the Malabar region which had also influenced the market. The stock held by NCDEX is 5,753 tonnes. In addition, there is 99 tonnes in process in selected warehouses, they said.

In the international market Vietnam was said to be easier and it was offering 500 GL at $3,520 a tonne (f.o.b.) and 550 GL at $3,720 a tonne (f.o.b.). Indonesia was reportedly offering Lasta at $4,000 at tonne (f.o.b.) while Brazil was quoted Basta at $3,850 a tonne (f.o.b.).

Indian parity was at $3,925-3,950 a tonne (c&f) and still remained competitive, they said.

Contract position

April contract on NCDEX declined on Wednesday by Rs 51 a quintal close at Rs 14,875. The fall in other contracts was from Rs 66 to Rs 278 a quintal. On NMCE April contract dropped by Rs 37 a quintal to close at Rs 14,785 from Rs 14,822. The drop in other contracts except August was from Rs 40 to Rs 60 a quintal while August moved up by Rs 240 a quintal.

Total turn over on NCDEX dropped by 2,589 tonnes to 8,758 tonnes while that on NMCE moved up by 203 tonnes to 1,196 tonnes.

Total open interest on NCDEX moved up by 191 tonnes to 18,638 tonnes. April position dropped by 52 per cent while May and June moved up by 40 per cent and 5 per cent respectively. On NMCE total open interest moved up by 100 tonnes to 1,974 tonnes.

Spot prices ruled steady at previous levels at Rs 14,200 (un-garbled) and Rs 14,800 (MG 1) a quintal on Wednesday.

Spot Rubber Rules Steady

Kottayam: Physical rubber rates were steady on Wednesday. The market ruled under the shadow of financial year closing lacking most active participants on either side. The signals from the domestic and global futures also were almost neutral and sheet rubber RSS 4 closed unchanged at Rs 102 a kg at Kottayam.

The grade improved by 50 paise to stabilise at the same level in Kochi. The volumes were low. The April futures for RSS 3 inched up to ¥270.9 (Rs 109.25) from ¥269.8 a kg at TOCOM. But its spot slipped by 55 paise to Rs 110.48 a kg at Bangkok.

Futures firm

Rubber was firm on NMCE. The April futures concluded the session at Rs 102.73 (102.55), May at Rs 104.70 (104.57), June at Rs 105.75 (105.52) and July futures at Rs 105.95 (105.70) per kg for RSS 4. The open interest was 4,034 (3,979) tonnes with 1,911 (1,945) tonnes in April, 1,320 (1,262) tonnes in May, 618 (602) tonnes in June and 185 (170) tonnes in July. The volumes fell further to 956 (1,208) tonnes.

Spot prices were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 102 (102); RSS-5: 100 (100); ungraded: 97 (97); ISNR 20: 98.50 (98.50) and latex 60 per cent: 69.50 (69.50).

Tea prices may rule high on short supply

Kochi: The tea prices in India are expected to remain at the current comparatively higher levels impacted by international scenario, where the prices are ruling high on reported crop loss in Kenya during the first quarter of 2008.

Prices of the CTC leaf and orthodox teas are at moderately higher levels in the world market. Kenyan tea was quoted at 237 cents/kg in January 2008 as against 178 cents/kg in January 2007. Similarly, Sri Lankan tea was sold at 305 cents/kg in January 2008 as against 209 cents/kg in 2007. The current prices show the tight supply position in the world market, trading sources told Business Line on Wednesday.

Tea output in Kenya during the first quarter is said to be lower by 35 per cent due to the ethnic conflict and drought conditions there. It is reflected on the world tea prices. “Impacted by the international scene, the prices of Indian CTC leaf and orthodox teas are expected to remain at the current levels,” they claimed. The prices of dust teas are, however, influenced by the domestic market, they said.

“We won’t say that the current prices are not remunerative, but we have to accept that there has been a jump from Rs 47 a kg last year to Rs 55.67 (all teas) in January 2008,” they claimed.

Non-traditional markets

They said non-traditional markets such as Turkey, Syria and Jordan were opening up for south Indian orthodox teas. Orders have started pouring in.

Demand, shipments

According to plantation industry sources, the recent extended summer showers in the southern States have not made any negative impact on the tea and instead it has been good to the crop.

“We can expect a good crop in April/May,” they said.

Sharp fall in demand from the CIS countries, Iraq and Pakistan in 2007 compared to the previous year has significantly pushed down exports from South India, which stood at 72.7 million kgs in 2007 from 119.9 million kgs in 2006. All India exports fell to 156.8 million kgs from 218.7 million kgs.

Shipments to CIS dropped to 43,950 tonnes from 49,110 tonnes in 2006, while that to Iraq fell to a mere 2,490 tonnes from 41,330 tonnes in 2006. Similarly, exports to Pakistan dropped to 5,150 tonnes from 14,730 tonnes in 2006.

However, the shipments of Indian teas to Arab Republic of Egypt (ARE) have shown a tangible increase in 2007 to 4,880 tonnes from 2,750 tonnes in 2006.

6-Week High Offer At Coonoor Tea Auctions

Coonoor: An analysis of the catalogues of the various brokers shows that the volume offered for Sale No 13 of the auctions of the Coonoor Tea Trade Association (CTTA) to be held here on Thursday and Friday is the highest of the last six weeks.

In all, 9.06 lakh kgs would be offered. This is some 79,000 kgs more than last week’s offer. However, it is as much as 1.23 lakh kgs lower than the offer this time last year.

Fresh arrivals are said to account for 8.46 lakh kgs of the 9.06 lakh kgs on offer. The balance comprises teas remaining unsold in the previous auctions.

Of the total, as much as 6.21 lakh kgs belong to the leaf grades and 2.85 lakh kgs belong to the dust grades. Again, as much as 8.44 lakh kgs belong to CTC variety and only 0.62 lakh kgs to orthodox variety.

Low on orthodox

The proportion of orthodox continues to be low in both the leaf and dust grades. In the leaf counter, only 0.24 lakh kgs belong to the orthodox while 5.97 lakh kgs, CTC. Among the dusts, 0.38 lakh kgs belong to the orthodox while 2.47 lakh kgs, CTC.

Global Palm Oil Gains 9% On Customs Duty Cut

Chennai: Crude palm oil had peaked to $4,486 a tonne on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange on March 4. By March 19, it had shed 25 per cent of the gains to slip to $1,064.20. Then, on March 20, the Centre announced a cut in Customs duty on all crude and refined cooking oils, except soyabean oil, as part of its effort to rein in inflation.

Trigger

But as it had happened on the previous occasions, the duty cut only proved to be a trigger for crude palm oil to rebound. On March 21, it shed about four per cent initially following fall in prices of soyabean on the Chicago Board of Trade. But once the impact of the Indian Customs duty cut was digested, it pared all the losses. Domestic prices were, however, a little lower than March 20 prices on Wednesday.

On Monday, palm oil stabilised at $1,064.20, but on Tuesday and Wednesday, it made headway to close at $1,160 a tonne, a gain of nine per cent. In between, Indonesia has taken this opportunity to double its crude palm oil tax to 20 per cent. From April 1, the base price on which the tax will be levied by Indonesia will be $1,196 a tonne against the current $988.

Chance to hike

“Indian Customs duty cut has always helped the producers of palm oil rather than the customers. Whenever the Centre has announced that it was slashing duty, countries such as Indonesia have taken the opportunity to jack up the prices,” says B.V. Mehta, Executive Director of the Solvent Extractors Association.

Palm oil, in particular, has proved to be the beneficiary since soyabean oil has been left out of the cut. The first time the Centre cut the duty was on January 25 last year, when the levy on crude edible oils was cut by 10 percentage points and on refined oils by 12.5 percentage points.

On April 13 last year, the duty was further cut by 10 percentage points for all cooking oils before the Centre again slashed the duty by another five percentage points on July 23. The latest was on March 20 last.

During this period, benchmark crude palm oil contracts have gained from $531.41 (on January 25, 2007) to $741.90 (July 23, 2007) to the current level.

Upper circuit

On the other hand, soyabean has been gaining in the global market during the last two sessions, mainly in view of a strike by Argentinian farmers during the last two weeks. They are protesting against the President, Cristina Fernandez’s move to increase export taxes for soyabean.

With both parties refusing to budge, exporters there have announced default or shifted orders to the US, leading to rise in prices. On Tuesday and Wednesday, soyabean hit the upper circuit on Chicago Board of Trade with May contracts rising to $498.53 a tonne (13.57 a bushel) from $443.42 ($12.07) during the weekend.

“The move to leave soyabean oil from the duty cut leaves consumers with no choice but to buy palm oil,” said Mehta.

However, the solvent extraction units are pressing for a cut in soyabean oil duty as well. A Commerce Ministry official, earlier this week, said it was on the cards.

Fears

Trade sources said soyabean oil was left out on the fears that it could affect farmers in Madhya Pradesh, the country’s hub of soyabean, and a record 94 lakh tonnes crop.

Trade sources said soyabean oil would be badly required during April-June, particularly for small refining units, since the soyabean stocks would have been exhausted by then. “Only big refiners can utilise palm oil. Small refiners certainly need soyabean oil,” they said.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Duty Cut: 'No Gain To Consumer’

Ahmedabad: Edible oil companies, which have started reducing prices to between Rs 2-6 a kg recently following import duty reduction announced by the Government last week, feel that the ordinary consumer can benefit only when duty is reduced on soya oil as well.

On March 20, the import duty on crude palm oil, including crude palmolein, was slashed from 45 to 20 per cent and that on refined palm oil, including RBD palmolein, from 52.5 to 27.5 per cent by the Centre. While welcoming the import duty reduction on these oils to improve supplies, oilseed crushers and manufacturers in Gujarat maintain that the actual beneficiaries of the Government move were hoteliers, bakeries and the vanaspati industry which use huge quantities of palm oil and they are unlikely to pass on the price reduction to the consumer.

The common consumer — in many parts of central and western India — uses soya oil for household cooking, which has seen no price reduction. Vijay Gupta, Chairman and Managing Director, Gujarat Ambuja Exports Ltd (GAEL), an oil-maker, told Business Line on Tuesday that the prices of all edible oils could go down further by Rs 3-4 per kg if the Government reduced duty on soya oil as well to 20 per cent.

Unless all edible oils are provided a level-playing field, the prices of this essential commodity can hardly benefit the actual consumer.

Repercussions

An official of Adani Wilmar Ltd, makers of Fortune brand edible oils, said reduced prices of palm oil have pushed some consumers towards it; ironically, the price of palm oil in Gujarat has gone up by Rs 3 per kg during the last two days.

As a result of import duty cut, Gokul Refoils reduced the palm oil prices by Rs 4 a kg, while KS Oil announced a price cut of Rs 2 a kg on mustard oil.

Similarly, cottonseed oil, used mainly for frying purposes, has seen prices go down by Rs 3 a kg.

Exporter Develops Biodynamic Cashew

Mangalore: The domestic cashew sector is again in the forefront of delivering a niche product – biodynamic cashew – to the world market. The Mangalore-based cashew manufacturer and exporter Achal Industries, in association with 31 farmers in Goa, has become successful in producing world’s first biodynamic cashew and delivering the first shipment to an overseas buyer.

G. Giridhar Prabhu, Proprietor, Achal Industries, told Business Line that the biodynamic project was initiated by Achal with a small group of farmers — numbering 31 in Goa region who were committed to organic agriculture since 12 years — on a 95- hectares of land two years ago.

Asked about the reasons for venturing into biodynamic project, he said biodynamics is a natural extension to organic farming and there was demand from consumers in Europe for biodynamic cashew.

Prabhu said the project was offered for inspection and certification to the inspection agency — IMO Control Pvt Ltd — and the certifying agency — Demeter International E.V., Germany.

Stating that this is the first-ever biodynamic cashew project in the world, he said the product thus produced by these farmers was processed and the first consignment of 3.19 tonnes was shipped out to Germany, via The Netherlands, last week from New Mangalore Port. The consignment carries the Demeter label. This will be marketed through the German buyer, Rapunzel Ag, he said. A few tea estates in India have been producing biodynamic tea. Birth of the concept

Prabhu said the concept of biodynamic agriculture is based on the agriculture lectures delivered by Rudolf Steiner in 1924 to a small group of farmers in Koberwitz, East Germany. Biodynamic agriculture is a method of farming that aims to treat the farm as a living system that interacts with the environment, to build healthy living soil and to produce food that nourishes and helps to develop humanity.

Steiner introduced the practice of making preparations based on cow manure, silica, and various herbal plants, to be used in order to open up the soil to cosmic influences. Steiner advocated discontinuing the use of chemical fertilisers altogether. Because of their inherent lack of life, he felt, chemicals could not maintain life or increase fertility in the soil.

Spot Rubber Recovers

Kottayam: The domestic rubber rates recovered partially on Tuesday. The market was reacting slowly to the weekend covering purchases as Japanese futures finished higher following Yen’s weakness against dollar. RSS 3 improved at its April futures to ¥269.8 (Rs 107.66) from ¥263 a kg at TOCOM. The grade’s spot slipped to Rs 111.03 (111.52) a kg at Bangkok.

In the physical front RSS 4 firmed up by 50 paise to Rs 102 a kg at Kottayam while the grade weakened by 50 paise to Rs 101.50 a kg at Kochi. The trend was mixed as RSS 5 and ungraded rubber finished steady amidst low demand.

Futures improve

The April futures for RSS 4 improved to Rs 102.40 (101.26), May toRs 104.55 (103.14), June to Rs 105.69 (104.35) and July to Rs 105.62 (104.57) per kg on NMCE. The April futures ended at Rs 102.70 (102.02) a kg on MCX. The open interest was 3,979 (4,011) tonnes with 1,945 (2,059) tonnes in April, 1,262 (1,179) tonnes in May, 602 (619) tonnes in June and 170 (154) tonnes in July on NMCE. The volumes fell to 1,208 (1,761) lots.

Spot prices were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 102 (101.50); RSS-5: 100 (100); ungraded: 97 (96.50); ISNR 20: 98.50 (98.50) and latex 60 per cent: 69.50 (69.50).

Time To Give Cashew A Growth Push

Indian cashew industry’s dependence on other producing countries for raw cashew nuts appears to have become a perpetual phenomenon as indigenous supply has not been able to keep pace with the processing industry’s ever-growing requirement.

Rising imports

Import of raw nuts, which began at around 1.3 lakh tonnes in the 1980s following the increase in exports of cashew kernels from the country and due to non-availability of the raw material in required quantity indigenously, has been growing steadily. This trend continued with the expansion of the processing capacity of the industry to meet the growing demand from overseas and domestic markets.

In 2006, while the total processing capacity was 12 lakh tonnes of raw nuts, the indigenous production was only 5.73 lakh tonnes. The industry, therefore, imported 5.65 lakh tonnes of raw nuts from other countries, especially in Africa.

According to official sources, the increased dependency on imports is fraught with danger as the exporting countries could start processing their own raw nuts. Hence, efforts are needed to achieve self-sufficiency in production of raw nuts. Unfocussed research

At present, cashew research appears to be lacking in direction and focus. An extension campaign is required among farmers to make them aware of the benefits of scientific cultivation techniques. At the same time, modernisation in processing, product diversification, value addition and marketing of Indian cashew under a brand are required. If the cashew industry has not achieved the desired levels of growth it must be because of poor coordination and co-operation in planning, chalking out programmes and implementation. All these point to the need for a representative body with sufficient autonomy.

The available data show that the quantity of raw nut processed in India has doubled in the last decade. The total raw nut processing is divided at an average ratio of 52:48 among local production and import. If this trend continues for the next ten years the requirement of raw nut would be 17 lakh tonnes by 2016.

Exports of cashew kernels have also been showing a steady increase, from 1,00,828 tonnes in 2002-03 to 1,26,667 tonnes in 2006-07. And the export earnings were Rs 1,804.43 crore and Rs 2,709.24 crore respectively.

Imports of raw nuts have gone up from 4,00,659 tonnes valued at Rs 1,236.57 crore in 2002-03 to 5,92,604 tonne valued at Rs 1,811.62 crore in 2006-07.

The rate of growth in Indian raw nut production, given the vast area under the crop, has not been at the desired levels.

Indigenous availability, which was at five lakh tonnes in 2002-03 increased to 5.73 lakh tonnes in 2005-06. Growing demand

Though the domestic demand is yet to be assessed accurately, it is estimated it is increasing at a phenomenal rate due to increased awareness among people about the health benefits and nutritional value of the nut. As such, demand is likely to increase, which is viewed as beneficial from the farmers’ and industrial point of view. Given this situation, there is an urgent need to step up domestic production on a war footing. Looking back

In fact, development of cashew cultivation was taken up in 1955 (the beginning of the Second Plan), as part of initially as part of the afforestation activity. After the formation of the Directorate of Cashew Development in 1966 a coordinated effort for the promotion of this crop with a national outlook was taken up, such as the World Bank-aided Multi-State Cashew Project (MSCP) in Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa during the Sixth Plan. It was during the Seventh Plan that multiplication of high yielding varieties through scion banks was initiated.

To increase production and productivity a two-pronged approach — extensive and intensive cultivation — was implemented during the Eighth Plan. During the next Plan an outlay of Rs 70 crore was made for cashew development programmes in the country.

However, with the emergence of macro management policy for agriculture during the Tenth Plan, the role of the Directorate of Cashew and Cocoa Development (DCCD) was redefined. As a result, the role of the DCCD was reduced to monitoring the status of execution of the programmes by States, in addition to implementation of direct funded components.

In 2005-06, the National Horticulture Mission (NHM) was launched to promote holistic growth of the horticulture sector and since then cashew development programmes are being pursued under the mission. Though areas planted with high yielding varieties of cashew have substantially helped in increasing production and productivity, areas raised with seeds and seedlings prior to the Eighth Plan with a forestry approach is playing a negative role in boosting production. It is estimated that a total area of 3,05,000 hectares of plantation at present falls under the senile and unproductive category, that is, 30 years and above of age.

In fact, considering its importance, the Office of the Prime Minister has identified “re-plantation of senile cashew plantation” as a thrust area. The Finance Minister in his 2007-08 Budget speech had announced a ‘special cashew fund’ to be set up in the pattern of Tea Fund. The Commerce Ministry has also designed cashew development programmes under the thrust area ‘Revival of Plantation Crops Economy’.

With all these efforts, the total area under cashew has expanded to 8.37 lakh hectares and an annual production of 5.73 lakh tonnes with a productivity of 815 kg/ha as against over 2,500 kg/ha in Vietnam. A boost required

India is still the world’s largest producer, consumer and exporter of cashew nuts. Above all, it provides employment to around five lakh workers, over 90 per cent of them being rural women. Besides, it provides livelihood to lakhs of small and marginal farmers, who do the cultivation in an unorganised and unscientific manner.

The farming practices and post-harvest technology are traditional and backward. It has already been found that this crop can be grown in all types of soils, including wasteland and rocky terrains.

Tobacco Stocks Still Weak On Budget Blues

Kolkata: Cigarette stocks remarkably did not participate in the general upward movement on Tuesday as the tax blow continued to drag them downwards.

According to analysts, apart from the Budget blues on non-filtered cigarettes, the introduction of pictorial warning, which may come up during the first quarter of 2008-09, have raised apprehension of substantial fall in revenue for the manufacturers.

Ram Patnaik, an analyst at Religare, felt that passing on the huge tax burden for the non-filtered cigarettes to the consumers may not be possible as the segment is considered highly price sensitive and consumer behaviour is considered to be rigid.

According to industry sources, ITC may opt for gradual phase-out of the segment altogether and two other players in the segment — VST and GTC — may not have much option but to reduce the production of non-filtered smoking sticks drastically.

Introduction of filtered variety of the old non-filtered brands is unlikely to shift smokers’ loyalty, said an industry insider. “Retaining market share at the low price segments would be a difficult proposition in view of the competition from bidi and ‘unauthorised’ cigarette manufacturers,” said a cigarette marketing personnel.

Declining Acceptance

ITC, with a large basket of cigarette brands, may withstand the pressure better that others, which rely more on non-filtered verities.

Two non-filtered brands contribute roughly 30 per cent of ITC’s cigarettes volumes, while in case of GTC and VST, it is estimated to be more than 50 per cent.

Current lobbying by the manufacturers, with the Finance Ministry, might be described as a shot in the dark, an analyst with a large brokerage said. Interestingly, many of the brokerages have, of late, stopped tracking tobacco stocks, except for ITC, which is considered as an FMCG player.

“Increasing “sin” tax, gradually declining social acceptance, health and ethical issues are forcing brokerages to ignore the sector,” the analyst said. The proposed statutory pictorial warnings, instead of verbal currently in vogue, may further alienate smokers and investors from the sector.

The counters such as GTC, VST and ITC have fallen sharply in the past one month, after the new tax proposals in the Budget for 2008-09. GTC has lost 49 per cent, VST 23.5 per cent, ITC 5.37 per cent and Godfrey Phillips 1.5 per cent, much in order on dependence on the non-filtered sticks. Barring GTC, which moved up by 2.34 per cent, three others finished flat on Tuesday.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Base Metals Positive On MCX

Chinese trade data on Monday offered the market some reassurance to Base metals. MCX Copper which closed the trades at Rs 320 per kg is now trading at Rs 321. Supports for the contract are at 313 levels. MCX Aluminium is at Rs 115 after closing the last session at Rs 114 with day’s low of 113, supports for Aluminium would be at 111. Among the other gainer’s was Nickel at Rs 1165 up Rs 14 while Lead was at Rs 111 up Rs 2. Zinc is also trading in green at Rs 94 up Rs 2. Supports for Nickel are at 1131 and 1125 levels while Lead will find supports at 110. The movements will be decided after the LME opens today after Easter holidays.

Oil Dives, $99.50 May Act As Good Support

Crude prices fell today on continued concerns of an impending recession in the U.S., the world’s largest economy. It dipped briefly below the $100 mark as a relatively stronger dollar, weaker demand and growing crude oil inventories made it extended its last retreat.

Yesterday OECD revised downward its economic forecasts for first and second quarters of the year for US. OECD said that the US economic growth for the first quarter from 0.3% to 0.1% and from 0.4% to zero for the second quarter.

U.S. light crude for May delivery recouped some early losses to stand 50 cents lower at $100.35 a barrel, sharply down from a record high $111.80 a barrel touched on March 17. Break of $99.50 may result in further downward movement in the counter.

MCX oil for the benchmark April futures contract is trading down Rs 63 at Rs 4018 per barrel. The traders may enter short on price spurts towards 4050 levels with the supports at 3999 and 3945 levels.

U.S. crude oil stocks likely rose for a third week, climbing 700,000 barrels in the week to March 21, while distillate and gasoline stocks probably fell, according to survey done by analysts ahead of Wednesday's government data

Pepper Rallies After A Weak Opening

Malabar Garbled Pepper futures surged after a weak trading in the opening sessions. NCDEX Pepper futures benchmark April contract opened the day with weak note at Rs 14811 and the price rose to the sessions high of Rs 15050, up Rs 129 per quintal. The commodity is currently trading near the sessions high and the open interest in the contract decreased 2.15%, indicating short covering.

India To Export Additional 4,124 Tonnes Of Raw Sugar

New Delhi: India will export 4,124 tons of raw sugar to European Union in addition to the 10,309 tons already exported to the bloc, out of free sale portion of 2007-08 season's production.

The government had allowed export of 10,309 tons of raw sugar in October 2007 through Delhi-based Indian Sugar Exim Corporation (ISEC). In a separate notification, the government has also allowed export of 10,000 tonnes of white sugar to the 27-nation bloc for July-June 2008-09. ISEC is the designated agency for the export of sugar to EU under preferential quota, it added.

Chilli Output May Miss Target, Prices Likely To Soar

New Delhi: The chilli production in the country is likely to miss not only the projected target of 12 lakh tons in 2007-08, but it could be below the last year's level as well, as untimely rain has damaged 20-25 per cent of the crop, sources in Spices Board said. Market analysts who have pegged the loss at 15-20 per cent due to the rain said below-than-expected output could send the prices soaring in near-term.

Monday, March 24, 2008

Good Scope For MG 1 Pepper Exports

Kochi: The Indian pepper prices continued to remain below that of other origins during the week, placing the Indian commodity at an advantageous position among its counterparts.

Non-availability of spot pepper has forced the exporters to cover from the exchanges where the price for March remained below the spot. Exchange prices were declining during the week on selling pressure. All contracts on NCDEX during the week dropped by Rs 138 to Rs 207 a quintal, while on NMCE it was up from Rs 59 to Rs 103 a quintal except for July contract, which moved up by Rs 154 a quintal. The total turnover on NCDEX has shown a sharp fall of 33,478 tonnes during the week to close at 43,688 tonnes. On NMCE it fell by 3,215 tonnes to 5,616 tonnes.

Total open interest on NCDEX dropped by 791 tonnes to 19,660 tonnes. March and April positions fell by 1,334 tonnes and 904 tonnes respectively, while May moved up by 1,420 tonnes. However, on NMCE the total open interest moved up by 178 tonnes to 1,789 tonnes.

Spot prices during the week remained unchanged at previous weekend’s close of Rs 14,300 (un-garbled) and Rs 14,900 (MG 1). Prices of other origins ruled almost firm at higher levels. Indian parity remained at $3,900-$3,950 a tonne (c&f). Indonesian LAsta ruled above $4,150 a tonne (c&f) while Vietnam Asta grade was above $4,300 a tonne (c&f). The other grades such 500 GL and 550 GL in Vietnam were also quoted at higher levels even though there was a marginal decline.

Competitive price

As the supply of heavy pepper (Asta grade) from Vietnam, where harvesting is on, continues to be tight and as a result even multi-origin operators were trying to buy MG 1 from India. Vietnam farmers release their produce at regulated manner, which seems to be the strategy that they experimented last year and turned out to be successful, so as to sustain the prices at higher levels and avert any sharp fall.

The availability of black pepper, especially the Asta grade, in other origins such as Brazil and Indonesia is also reportedly limited. Thus, India, besides Vietnam, is the only other source having pepper of this grade and at a most competitive price.

Therefore, there is a good potential for demand coming to India in the coming weeks for MG 1. White pepper prices also continued to rule high in the world market on short supply.

3,000 Tonnes Raw Cashew Damaged Due To Rains

Mangalore: While the cashew processors are worried over the continued summer rainfall as it is likely to hurt the prospects of the already harvested crop, the scientific community feels that this untimely rainfall will help in getting better yield for growers.

Many of the cashew-growing centres in Karnataka have been witnessing summer rainfall for the past one week to 10 days.

K. Prakash Rao, President of the Karnataka Cashew Manufacturers’ Association (KCMA), told Business Line that nearly 2,500-3,000 tonnes of raw cashew nuts have been damaged in various harvesting and post-harvesting stages due to rainfall in Karnataka and Kerala.

“We hope that this rainfall will stop. If it continues, nearly 10,000 tonnes of raw cashew nuts will be affected in Karnataka and Kerala,” he said.

The loads which are to be harvested have been heavily affected, and the process of drying of harvested crop is also affected, he said.

B. Rahul Kamath, partner of the Karkala-based Bola Surendra Kamath & Sons, said that nearly 100-120 tonnes of raw cashew nuts suffer damage every day due to rainfall. Growers will not be in a position to harvest the crop due to water logging in cashew plantations.

The ripened cashew that falls on ground will absorb moisture damaging the crop.

GOOD YIELD

Dr. T.R. Guruprasad, Associate Director of Research, Zonal Agricultural Research Station at Brahmavar in Udupi district, said that this untimely rainfall will help in getting good yield for growers.

The rainfall will help inflorescence of plants, as it will provide much-needed moisture for inflorescence for development of cashew nuts.

If moisture was not there, developing cashew nuts would have fallen. Flower and nut fall will come down because of moisture.

Stating that cashew plant bears two types of flowers (male and hermaphrodite), he said this untimely rainfall will lead to the falling of male flowers. (Male flowers do not set fruits.)

Individual Speculators Push Cotton Prices Up

Mumbai: World cotton prices have continued to exhibit a rising trend in recent months.

The market is currently ruling significantly higher than price forecasts made by several analysts and trade experts. That the price behaviour beat expert forecasts seems to have surprised a lot of people including market participants.

While primary producers and exporters have reason to be happy with rising cotton prices, consumers are not.

India is no exception. Despite large production (over 30 million bales in 2007-08 representing 10 per cent increase over the previous year), cotton prices in India too have remained firm, well supported by strong exports.

What has led to the price spurt in recent weeks?

Rise in long positions

A research paper titled “Speculation and Cotton prices” prepared by Alejandro Plastina, Economist with the Washington-based International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has, based on analysis of data, showed that speculators have played an important role in pushing prices higher.

According to the research, speculators have accounted for increased share of cotton long positions.

Long are those who buy today with expectation of a price rise at a future date. They would sell and book profit when the price objective is achieved.

Pointing out that Open Interest in cotton futures and options contracts more than doubled between January 2006 and February 2008, the author goes on to state that the share of total long positions in the ICE (New York Board of Trade) cotton futures and options market held by hedgers declined from an average of 31 per cent in 2006 to 27 per cent in 2007 and further down to 26 per cent in 2008.

The counterpart of the decline in the share of total long positions held by hedgers was the increase in the share of total long positions held by speculators (individuals and index traders) from 69 per cent in 2006 to 73 per cent in 2007, and then on to 74 per cent in 2008.

Analysing the composition of speculators long position, the research found, individual traders, rather than index traders, accounted for an increasing share of long positions held by speculators, from 50 per cent in 2006 to 61 per cent in 2007 and then on to 65 per cent in 2008.

On the other hand, the share of index traders (pension funds, managed funds, and other traders with predominantly long futures positions replicating commodity indices) declined from 50 per cent in 2006 to 39 per cent in 2007, and then on to 35 per cent in 2008.

The report concludes that individual traders, rather than index traders, have been the driving force behind the increase in open interest for cotton futures and options.

Another interesting observation of the report is that net positions (the difference between long and short positions) held by index traders remained positive and more than doubled between January 2006 and February 2008, indicating bullish sentiments among these speculators.

On the other hand, the net positions held by individual traders showed great variability around zero until June 2007, when they turned positive and increased thereafter.

Therefore, individual speculators have been instrumental in increasing total (individual and index traders’) net speculative positions since June 2007, placing upward pressure on nearby cotton futures prices. Analysis of data relating to changes in speculative positions (both individuals and index traders) and changes in Cotlook A-Index (a measure of global cotton prices) establishes a causal relationship between net long positions and Cotlook A-Index.

The report infers that bullish sentiment among individual speculators has contributed to pushing cotton prices up, above and beyond what fundamentals suggest as appropriate.

Of little surprise

For those tracking commodity markets, this conclusion should bring little surprise. Speculators enter a commodity market whenever they see an emerging demand-supply mismatch.

Their trading positions would reveal not what current market fundamentals are, but expected changes in the future. It is in anticipating future changes and taking a trading call today that savvy speculators thrive.

A look at the demand-supply fundamentals of the global cotton market for three years reveals tightening market conditions. Output trails consumption and stocks have been drawndown considerably, providing a fertile playing ground for speculators. In a tightly balanced market, even a small change in either demand or supply or both will have a disproportionately large impact on prices.

In a rising market producers usually do not hedge the entire production as they would be reluctant to lock-in profits (which is what hedging is all about), and would want to keep the potential profit open-ended.

Consumers have surely suffered because of the rise in physical market prices.

The world financial markets are awash with excess liquidity. Speculators (who these days are euphemistically called investors) are constantly looking for new investment opportunities with potential for quick and high profits. Commodities have recently emerged as an asset class.

But the speculative play in the market has the potential to adversely affect genuine physical market participants such as primary producers and processors.

ICAC should be complimented for conducting this research which has brought out the role of speculators in the commodity market.

ICAC would do well to extend the study to ascertain the types of market participants who have actually benefited and who have suffered because of rising speculation. For India, there are lessons to be learnt.

Homedale Teas Set Up New Record At Coonoor Auctions

Coonoor: Homedale Tea Factory set up a new record at the auctions of the Coonoor Tea Trade Association (CTTA) here when its RD grade teas auctioned by Global Tea Brokers fetched Rs 102 a kg. Joshua Enterprises bought these teas. This was the highest price fetched by the factory so far in CTTA auctions. Its earlier high was Rs 100. This was also the highest price for the RD grade in Sale No: 12.

Hittakkal Speciality PD grade sold by Contemporary Tea Auctioneers P Ltd., also fetched Rs 102. Tea Services India P Ltd bought these teas. This was the highest price for the PD grade at Sale No: 12. Last week, this grade fetched Rs 107.

Among the CTC teas from other bought-leaf factories, Darmona Estate got Rs 88, Greenview Estate Rs 85, Kannavarai Estate Rs 84, Selvaganapathy Supreme Rs 82, Deepika Supreme, Professor, Sree Tea Supreme and Ella Estate Rs 80.

Among the orthodox teas from corporate sector, Chamraj got Rs 125 a kg, Mailoor Rs 117, Havukal Rs 115, Corsley Rs 113, Kairbetta, Quinshola, Curzon and Prammas Rs 110, Coonoor Tea Estate Rs 107 and Glendale Rs 103.

Export purchases were more pronounced this week. Shippers to Pakistan picked up blacker CTC leaf grades for Rs 49-51 a kg, while some select invoices of orthodox leaf grades were bought for higher prices. Exporters to CIS and Poland markets picked up plainer bolder grades for up to Rs 48. Egypt bought medium teas for up to Rs 52. There were some purchases for the US and West Asian markets at high prices.

Upcountry buyers were selective in most invoices. They said that fiscal year-end accounting limited their cash-spread as only in the next fiscal, they could get realisation for the teas they pay and buy now. So, the market showed erratic behaviour. “While high-priced CTC leaf eased Rs 1-2 a kg, their dust counterpart gained to the same extent. Some better medium and plainer CTC leaf suffered withdrawals.

Second level orthodox leaf grades were dearer up to Rs 5 a kg. Primary orthodox dusts eased to the same extent”, an auctioneer said.

Quotations held by the brokers indicated bids ranging from Rs 45 to 47 a kg for the plain leaf grades and Rs 60-80 for the brighter liquoring sorts. They ranged Rs 49-51 for the plain dust grades and Rs 62-80 for the brighter liquoring sorts.

Friday, March 21, 2008

Govt Provides Financial Relief To Tea Growers

New Delhi: The Commerce Ministry on Thursday announced the price spectrum band for 2007 for rubber, coffee and tea to give financial relief to the growers when the prices of these commodities fall below a specified level under the Price Stabilisation Fund Scheme (PSFS).

The tea growers would be the main beneficiary as both coffee and rubber growers had a boom year in 2007.

For tea, the Price Spectrum Band, calculated on the basis of seen years’ moving average of international price for the commodity, shows that the annual average domestic price for tea was Rs 64.66 per kg during 2007 and it has been categorised as ‘normal year’.

The annual average domestic price for coffee Arabica during 2007was Rs 112.70 per kg and it has been categorised as ‘boom year’ for Arabica. The annual average domestic price for Robusta was Rs 75.76 per kg during 2007, and it has been categorised as ‘boom year’ for it.

The annual average domestic price for rubber was Rs 90.06 a kg during 2007, and it has been categorised as ‘boom year’. As no tobacco grower is enrolled under the scheme, price spectrum band for tobacco has not been fixed.

On the basis of price spectrum band in 2007, 15,289 tea growers would receive financial assistance of Rs 0.76 crore from the PSF Trust Fund during 2008-09, while the other two commercial crops viz., coffee and rubber growers would not get any relief as they come under ‘boom year’ categorisation.

Icrisat Setting Up $5.25 M Bio-Food Knowledge Centre

Hyderabad: A $5.25 million Bio-Food Knowledge Centre (BFKC), with participation of corporates and institutes, will be established by the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (Icrisat).

The Icrisat is also in the process of setting up the Centre for Excellence in Genomics (CEG), with a financial support of $1 million from the Union Department of Biotechnology (DBT).

Making these announcements, the Director-General of Icrisat, Dr William Dar, told newspersons today that the BFKC would be a public-private partnership venture in the Agri-Science Park at the Icrisat campus, with major support from the Andhra Pradesh Government.

Corporate interest

The State has sanctioned a support of $500,000 to the venture. Interest in the venture has come from the Yes Bank, corporates such as ITC and Nandan Biometrix etc.

The Icrisat has also signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Crop and Food Research, a Crown Research Institute of New Zealand.

“We would work together to develop the BFKC. Discussions to leverage New Zealand’s expertise in agri science have been undertaken for accelerating the commissioning.”

“The objective is to completely develop the Centre in 5 years with $ 5.25 m outlay”, Dr Dar said.

R&D platform

The BFKC aims to develop a platform for R&D, innovation, technology transfer and commercialisation in food processing with focus on cereals, legumes, fruits and vegetables.

It would have pilot facilities, create knowledge with no commercial intent but supporting innovation and start ups, said Mr Raveen K. Reddy, Secretary, Biotechnology of the AP Government.

Dr Barry Shapiro, Managing Director of the Agri Science Park, said new products and new business that would benefit farmers and entrepreneurs would be taken up at BKC.

For example, the areas of nutraceuticals, fortified products and beverages will be prime focus.

Database

The CEG, on the other hand, has been equipped with high throughput, low cost equipment, which will help create useful genetic databases and finally reduce the development cycles and thus costs on developing new varieties by half, which in turn, benefit farmers.

The CEG would also provide training for building the capacity of Indian and developing country scientists.

Already, 19 scientists from the Indian Council for Agriculture Research Institutes are undergoing training.

Marginal Fall In Pepper Futures

Kochi: Pepper futures market on Thursday declined marginally on selling pressure as those holding long positions began to liquidate.

Bears were said to be creating more pressure on long operators to liquidate. Indian parity continues to remain at around $3,900-3,950 a tonne (c&f). Vietnam prices continued to rule higher. 500 GL was being offered at $3,800-3,900 a tonne (f.o.b.) while 550 GL at $4,000-4,100 a tonne (f.o.b.). But, there were no buyers at this rate.

According to an overseas report Vietnam 500GL and 550 GL pepper is coming to India now. In Brazil the prices continued to remain firm at the previous levels and the exporters do not seem to be interested to reduce their price.

The markets are expected to become active after the Easter holidays.

March contract on NCDEX declined by Rs 13 a quintal on Thursday to Rs 14,715. The decline in other contracts except May was from Rs 12 to Rs 47 a quintal. May contract moved up by Rs 9 a quintal.

On NMCE April contract dropped by Rs 12 a quintal to Rs 15,081. August and September contracts dropped by Rs 30 and Rs 19 respectively while May and July moved up by Rs 1 and Rs 204 a quintal respectively.

Spot prices continued to rule at previous levels of Rs 14,300 (un-garbled) and Rs 14,900 (MG 1) a quintal on Thursday.

Pepper Harvest Hit By Extended Showers

Kochi: The extended summer showers this year over Kerala and some parts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka during the past five days are negatively affecting the pepper harvesting.

The pepper harvested during the past four to five days will loose its bulk density because of the heavy rains besides the pepper catching mould, growers told Business Line on Thursday.

Harvesting in Wayanad and Idukki districts of Kerala is in the last lap, and it is also disrupted by the rains. The main areas where harvesting is on in Idukki are Kumily, where harvesting has started now because of late crop, Rajakkad and Rajakumari where over 50 per cent of harvest is over. At the same time, harvesting in the entire Wayanad district is under way, they said.

The Madukeri region of Karnataka is also reportedly receiving extended summer showers, and as a result, harvesting there also is being affected.

Wrong signal

On the other hand, continuous rains would send wrong signals to vines that the monsoon has already set in and it will result in the new flushes turning into vegetation. It might have negative impact on the next crop also, they claimed.

Whereas, in the southern districts of Kerala and in Tamil Nadu’s Kannyakumari district harvesting is over, and there the rains would result in new flushings and, consequently, new spikes coming out. Therefore, the next crop in this region might come out better, provided the summer in April and May does not turn out to be severe, as such an eventuality might result in fall of the new spikes.

In the Pattipuram-patti area of Tamil Nadu, where also harvesting is on, the rains are said to have been affected it. However, farmers there are selling green pepper.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Fresh Chilli Plant To Go On Stream In Byadagi

Thiruvananthapuram: The Union Minister of State for Commerce, Jairam Ramesh, will on Friday inaugurate a fresh chilli processing plant at Byadagi in Karnataka. This is expected to help the cause of the chilli trade in the country. Being set up by the Thiruvananthapuram-based National Institute for Inter-disciplinary Sciences and Technology (NIIST) on a turnkey basis, the plant will have a capacity to process 20 tonnes of fresh chilli per day.

This is one of many such turnkey ventures involved in by the NIIST, an affiliate of the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), said Dr. T.K. Chandrashekar, Director. Pioneers in the oilseed and spice processing technology, the centre has extended technical expertise to regions as far as Manipur and Meghalaya. The next venture is expected to come up in the state of Sikkim.

This plant will produce quality “Byadagi chilli” in rich colour to stringent international standards and free of aflatoxins. Unlike the conventional process of sun-drying the fresh chilli, the garden-fresh produce will be converted into the end product within a few hours of reaching the factory.

COLOUR VALUE

This will ensure an end product with a colour value at least 20 per cent higher than what would have been possible through conventional means. The sun-drying process would take 10 to 12 days, and will lead to improper drying, loss of carotenoids, propagation of aflatoxins, apart from accumulation of dust and bird droppings.

The chilli prices are determined by the moisture content, high colour value and low aflatoxin levels. The processing technique adopted at this unit will ensure a premium product which is commercially viable, Dr. Chandrashekar said. The washing of the fresh chilli prior to processing in Byadagi plant will ensure the removal of adhering mud and dust and surface pesticides, if any.

“The enhanced colour value will fetch a proportionate increase in prices and with the marketing expertise of our client this unit is going to be a trend setter in the chilli processing sector in the years to come,” he said. The chilli growers of the region would be the major beneficiary of this project, he added.

Pepper Futures Up Marginally

Kochi: Pepper futures market on Wednesday ruled by and large steady with marginal rise.

There was not much of selling pressure in the spot market. Domestic demand continued to be good and much of it was being directly from the primary markets.

Export demand was not much and hence the activities were limited.

In the international market Vietnam was slightly easier. Prices of 500 GL and 550 GL on Wednesday were at $3,650 and $3,850 a tonne (f.o.b.) respectively.

Indian parity was at $3,950-4,000 a tonne (c&f), while V Asta was at above $4,300 a tonne (c&f) and B Asta at $3,900-3,950 a tonne (c&f). Vietnam was offering white at $6,075 a tonne, while Muntok white was at $5,850-5,900 a tonne.

CONTRACT POSITION

March contract on NCDEX on Wednesday moved up by Rs 28 a quintal to Rs 14,700. The other contracts except September went up by Rs 15 to Rs 167 a quintal, while September fell by Rs 283 a quintal.

On NMCE, April contract went up by Rs 104 a quintal to Rs 15,105. All other contracts except September moved up by Rs 10 to Rs 89 a quintal. September dropped by Rs 155 a quintal.

Total turnover on NCDEX dropped by 5,456 tonnes to 7,746 tonnes, while that on NMCE fell by 462 tonnes to 1,337 tonnes.

Total open interest on NCDEX moved up by 112 tonnes to 19,931 tonnes. March position dropped by 7 per cent while April and May moved up by 59 per cent and 28 per cent.

On NMCE total open interest increased by 21 tonnes to close at 1,739 tonnes.

Spot prices remained steady at previous levels at Rs 14,300 (un-garbled) and Rs 14,900 (MG 1) a quintal on Wednesday.

India To Gain On Global Cashew Shortage

Ullal: The reported shortage in production of cashew in Brazil and Vietnam should augur well for the Indian cashew sector; and there will be good demand for the commodity this year, according to K. Prakash Rao, President of the Karnataka Cashew Manufacturers’ Association (KCMA).

Speaking on the sidelines of “Cashew Field Day” at the Agricultural Research Station at Ullal in Mangalore taluk on Tuesday, he said shortage in cashew production had been reported from Brazil and in some pockets in Vietnam. This would boost the demand for Indian cashew this year, he said.

Stressing the need for improving productivity in cashew plantations, he said high-density planting helped Vietnam to register growth in productivity of cashew. Vietnam, which produced around 25,000 tonnes of cashew a few years ago, is now producing nearly four lakh tonnes.

While the productivity level in India is around 650 kg per hectare, it stands at nearly 2,000 kg per hectare in Vietnam. It is said Vietnam now wants to increase productivity of cashew to 4,000 kg per hectare.

He said the Cashew Export Promotion Council of India (CEPCI) in its “Vision 2020” plan envisaged increasing the production of cashew in India to 18 lakh tonnes per year from the present five lakh tonnes. However, the growth shown in production and consumption in the past one year indicate that this number is likely to increase. With the boom in retail sector, the domestic consumption of cashew is also increasing every year.

Inaugurating the “cashew field day”, S.D. Sampath Samrajya, Member of the Board of Regents of University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore, said proper irrigation to the crop would help increase its yield by 50 to 60 per cent. He urged farmers to adapt good farm management practices.

Dr. G. Eshwarappa, Director (Extension), University of Agricultural Sciences, was present on the occasion.

Spot Rubber Rules Steady

Kottayam: Spot rubber ruled almost flat on Wednesday. According to sources, the selling from dealers and growers observed during the past few sessions dried up as their stocks hit the bottom lines. There has been some buying interest at lower levels as tapping came to a halt followed by intensified rains all over the State. Sheet rubber closed unchanged at Rs 104 a kg at Kottayam, while the grade moved down to Rs 104.25 from Rs 104.50 a kg at Kochi. The transactions were dull.

Futures better

The rubber futures turned better on NMCE. The April futures improved to Rs 105.13 (104.48), May to Rs 107.16 (106.48), June to Rs 108.44 (108.04) and July to Rs 109 (108.60) per kg for RSS 4.

The open interest was 4,153 (4,126) tonnes with 2,291 (2,342) tonnes in April, 1,108 (1,057) tonnes in May, 660 (661) tonnes in June and 94 (66) tonnes in July. The volumes fell to 620 (1,239) tonnes.

Spot prices were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 104 (104); RSS-5: 102 (102); ungraded: 99 (98.50); ISNR 20: 101.50 (101.50) and latex 60 per cent: 70.50 (70.50).

Gold, Silver Decline On Lack Of Buying Support

New Delhi: Despite firm global trend, gold prices declined on the bullion market today following lack of buying interest and lost Rs 180 at Rs 13,110 per ten gram.

Trading activity fell due to off-marriage season besides some investors shifting their funds towards rising stock market.

The firming global trend, which normally set prices in domestic markets here, failed to impact the trading activity. The US Federal Reserve cut interest rate by 75 basic points last night to create liquidity and control housing subprime crisis.

Gold climbed by $8.66 to $990.90 an ounce in London. The metal reached a record $1,032.70 on March 17. Silver, rising 16 cents to $19.885 an ounce, failed to impact on the gold prices in domestic market here.

Marketmen said persistent selling by stockists during the off-marriage season mainly pulled down gold prices.

Standard gold and ornaments remained under selling pressure and lost further by Rs 180 each at Rs 13,110 and Rs 12,960 per ten grams respectively. Sovereign followed suit and lost Rs 100 at Rs 10,200 per piece of eight gram.
A similar weakening trend was extended in silver, as the metal for ready delivery dipped by Rs 300 to Rs 24,200 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 90 at Rs 25,880 per kg. Silver coins traded lower by Rs 100 at Rs 27,000 for buying and Rs 27,100 for selling of 100 coins.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Subsidy On Sulphate Of Potash Likely For Tobacco Growers

New Delhi: The Department of Fertilisers is preparing a Cabinet note on providing subsidy to tobacco growers for sulphate of potash (SoP), involving a sum of Rs 1,200 crore a year, the Minister of State for Commerce, Jairam Ramesh, said on Tuesday in the Lok Sabha.

Responding to a calling attention motion moved by former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda on the subject, the Minister said as murate of potash (MoP) was banned in tobacco cultivation due to its adverse effect on crop quality, farmers were using only SoP. With SoP prices increasing steeply in the 2008-09 season, the Commerce Ministry took up the subsidy issue with the Department of Fertilisers, which agreed to prepare a note for the Cabinet..

Ramesh defended the ceiling on tobacco cultivation, saying excess production in successive years had caused a glut, exacerbating the plight of growers and India as a signatory to Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) under the World Health Organisation (WHO) had to cut down tobacco cultivation progressively.

He said as production continued to be high, the Government had to resort to levying penalty on excess crop produced. Though originally fixed at Re 1 per kg and normal service charges of 1 per cent, this has been hiked to Rs 2 per kg and 15 per cent service charge over the years.

No discrimination

He denied the charge that there was any discrimination in the levy of penalty between the growers of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. He also asserted that there was “no politics in the fixation of the crop size”. Ramesh said the penalty charge on excess crop would be reviewed in the next meeting of the Tobacco Board.

Ramesh said during 2007-08, the country exported $410 million of tobacco. He added that the crop grown in Karnataka was of premium variety and the State exported 62 per cent of its produce, while Andhra Pradesh exported 58 per cent.

Good demand

As tobacco crop from Zimbabwe has ceased and the US is phasing out tobacco production, the demand for Indian tobacco in the global market has increased, he said, adding that Karnataka’s premium tobacco had better prospects. Ramesh said that following the visit of the Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh to China recently, China would take 10 million kg of Indian tobacco every year, after a break of 14 years. This would help tobacco exporters of India, he said.

The Minister said his department and the Tobacco Board would devise a special project to popularise the non-carcinogenic use of tobacco. He said efforts would be made to extract chemicals from tobacco to be used in pharmaceutical and nutraceutical purposes.

In his observations, Gowda said when the fertiliser subsidy for the next fiscal was pegged at Rs 90,000 crore, poor tobacco growers numbering some 60,000 in Karnataka should not be slapped a penalty of Rs 9 crore for excess production as the soil in particular districts, where the crop was grown, was suited only to tobacco cultivation.

Export Ban Unlikely To Deliver Results

Mumbai: One could see it coming. One more commodity has fallen victim to policy risk. After the ban on export of wheat and pulses, it is edible oil now added to the list of prohibited items. It is obvious, the Government is getting increasingly desperate, as success in checking inflation has proved to be rather elusive.

Prices of various essential food products including of course edible oil have seen a sharp rise in recent months in the domestic market. Higher domestic oilseed output could not dampen the sentiment. International prices too have been strong.

Reduction in Customs duty has not been of much avail. Going by experience, prohibition on export is, of course, a logical step to be expected of the Government that has no embarrassment in reversing liberal trade policies. However, not much is likely to be achieved in terms of reining in prices.

After all, exports constitute a very small fraction of the country’s total production and consumption. According to market reports, about 40,000 tonnes of various oils have been exported. This includes around 25,000 tonnes of groundnut oil at prices in the $1,800-1,900 a tonne range.

Some quantity of soyabean oil has also reportedly been contracted for export. India traditionally exports small volumes of premium oils of coconut, sesame and mustard, mainly to cater to expat population. Yet, exports did exert a sentimental impact on open market prices.

Importantly, much of the value in the chain was captured by export houses, rather than primary producers. So, no one needs to shed any tears on this export ban. The unfortunate part is that even exporters of premium edible oils in consumer packs will be affected.

If New Delhi harbours any hope that prohibiting export will result in a fall in prices, it could be mistaken. This kind of piecemeal strategy is most unlikely to deliver results. High open market prices are hurting poor consumers.

Through its continued inaction and/or weak action on the price front, the Government has compromised the interests of the poor people. Perhaps, the most effective way to genuinely support poor consumers is to restart supply of edible oil through the public distribution system. Why the Centre has neglected the most rational approach to advance consumer interest remains a mystery. Why only rice and wheat through the PDS; why not edible oil?

New Delhi can no more distance itself from its responsibility. What are the other options available to the Government? There could be imposition of storage limits on oilseeds and oils. Customs duty on imported oils could be reduced further and even reduced to zero for a period of time.

Delisting of edible oil from the bourses is also an option. It is a shame, the country is going back to the dark ages of controls and restrictions. Reversal of liberal trade policies is a clear reflection of the government’s failure on the agricultural production front.

Ban On Edible Oils Export

Chennai: The Centre has banned exports of all edible oils from the country as a measure to curb their rising prices and check inflation. In a notification issued late on Monday, the Directorate-General of Foreign Trade, an arm of the Commerce Ministry, said the ban, with immediate effect, would be applicable for one year.

The Centre was expected to come up with various measures to check rising prices, especially in the case of edible oils after inflation for the weeks ended February 23 and March 1 crossed five per cent.

Prices of cooking oils witnessed sharp rise during the early part of this month in tune with the global trend, where the rates zoomed to record highs.

Credit squeeze

Also, the Union Government was expected to cut Customs duty on edible oils import in the Budget to cool down rising prices.

Edible oil prices have been virtually on the boil since last year on higher crude prices, diversion of vegetable oil for production of bio-diesel. The domestic market, despite measures taken by the Centre to temper the rise in prices, gained on lower rabi crop prospects and rising demand.

However, with the global equities crashing on fears over credit squeeze, the vegetable oils market has also been witnessing a decline. During the last two trading sessions, the soyabean counter on Chicago Board of Trade and crude palm oil on Malaysia Derivatives Exchange have hit lower ceilings.

Industry disappointed

The Centre’s move to ban exports has disappointed the industry. “There was no need for a ban on export of edible oils from the country. In our view, these premium exports could have been substituted by higher volume imports of cheaper oils,” said Davish Jain, Chairman of the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade.

In his view, export of groundnut oil fetches a premium and it could have been allowed. In turn, the Centre could have imported either crude palm oil or degummed soyabean oil that could be 1.3 to 1.4 times the volume of exported oils.

“In fact, we had made such a request to the Centre, saying premium exports should not be stopped,” Jain said.

According to B.V. Mehta, Executive Director, Solvent Extractors Association of India, groundnut oil exports were fetching about $1,750 a tonne on an average. “So far, we could have exported 20,000 tonnes and another 5,000 tonnes could have been contracted,” he said.

Besides, groundnut oil, which is shipped to China, the US and Europe, other oils being exported are rapeseed and mustard oil and packaged coconut oil.

While groundnut oil was fetching $1,750 a tonne, import of crude palm oil costs $1,215 c&f and de-gummed soyabean oil $1,465.

Prices fall

“The quantity of edible oils exported from the country is hardly 40,000 tonnes, whereas imports are nothing less than 51 lakh tonnes. We don’t think exports would have any effect on the prices,” Mehta said.

Jain said the upheaval in the equities market had begun to affect the vegetable oils market and prices had begun reacting fast. “The downside in the vegetable oil is much bigger and prices are currently below the pre-budget levels,” he said.

In Mumbai, on spot and futures market of oilseed and oil, groundnut ready oil declined Rs 5 to Rs 720 for 10 kg, while RBD palmolein slipped Rs 7 to Rs 595.

Refined soyabean oil dropped by Rs 15 to Rs 650 for 10 kg and sunflower oil slipped Rs 20 to Rs 770.

On MCX, refined soya oil for April delivery declined 2.24 per cent to Rs 642.60 for 10 kg.

On NCDEX, soyabean oil for March delivery fell from Rs 659 to Rs 644.95 for 10 kg. March contracts on NCDEX for groundnut oil slipped to Rs 728.15 (Rs 731); RBD palmolein to Rs 627.45 (Rs 644) and rapeseed/mustard to oil Rs 625.55 (Rs 631).

The fall is being attributed more to the decline in global trend than the ban.

According to analysts, the ban could affect sentiments to a certain extent and Tuesday’s trend was, possibly, in line with that.