Chennai: For the second year in succession, India will be second-largest producer, user and exporter of cotton. Last season (August 2006 –July 2007), India had overtaken the US to emerge as second-largest producer of cotton, after China. And if one goes by the projection of Cotlook, India is likely to be the number two for the third year the next season.
This season, with US cotton growers shifting to other crops such as corn, India has emerged as a firm number 2 producer of the natural fibre. Last year, India produced 4.746 million tonnes (279 lakh bales of 170 kg), while the US production was 4.7 million tonnes (mt). This year, the Indian production has been pegged at 5.34 mt (313.76 lakh bales) against the US output of 4.14 mt.
According to Cotlook’s estimates, production next season is likely to be 330 lakh bales or 5.61 mt in India, whilst that of the US is seen declining further to 3.19 mt.
Better prices
Indian production is seen up in view of better prices for growers during the last couple of years and increasing use of Bt cotton, which now makes up over 65 per cent of the total area under cotton. Production in the US and other growing countries, on the other hand, is estimated lower in view growers shifting to soyabeans, corn and wheat.
China continues to be the number one in production, consumption and imports. This is despite a fall of over one lakh tonnes in production from last year. Beijing is estimated to produce 7.62 mt cotton this season against last year’s 7.72 mt. Cotlook sees production rebounding to 7.65 mt next season.
On the exports front, shipments from the country this year are projected at 1.33 mt (78 lakh bales) against 1.09 mt (59 lakh bales). The US continues to be the largest exporter, shipping out 3.15 mt cotton (2.83 mt).
China and India clearly lead the pack on the consumption front. In fact, higher consumption by China sees it being the top importer despite being the largest producer. Imports by China are seen at 2.72 mt against 2.30 mt last year. In fact, Pakistan has emerged as the third largest cotton importer after Turkey. It will import 0.71 mt cotton against 0.5 mt last season.
Consumption
China’s cotton consumption, on the other hand, is projected to increase to 11.54 mt against 10.88 mt last year. Indian consumption is seen at 3.94 mt, the same as last year.
The ending or carryover stocks this season are seen topping 1.75 mt (100 lakh bales) against 1.63 mt (90 lakh bales). In contrast, the ending stocks are estimated lower in China at 3.62 mt (4.07 mt last season) and the US at 2.04 mt (2.06 mt).
Despite higher ending stocks in the country, there should be no cause for worry since global ending stocks are projected lower at 12.88 mt (13.32 mt).
In fact, Cotlook has pruned its cotton production estimates for 2008-09 season by 0.357 mt. This is because production in China is now estimated at 7.65 mt against 7.75 mt, while in the US, it is seen at 3.12 mt against 3.197 mt.
In view of the pruning, global production is projected at 26.31 mt against 26.42 mt made last month. The output, however, is likely to be higher than this season’s 26.03 mt.
Cotlook said the global sub-prime crisis continued to take toll on consumption prospects. But the net drawdown from the stocks was likely to be higher and over one mt of cotton would be wiped off the global balance sheet in view of the pruned estimated.
The agency sees India’s consumption rising to 7.31 mt against 7.13 mt this season.
Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture said consumption this season was seen up 1.4 per cent globally.
It said use by spinning mills in China, India, Pakistan and Turkey had increased sharply over the years.
China and India alone account for 57 per cent of the global cotton consumption, it said. The US agency also projected stock depletion of 2.5 per cent, which is seen keeping the prices firm in the short to medium-term.
This season, with US cotton growers shifting to other crops such as corn, India has emerged as a firm number 2 producer of the natural fibre. Last year, India produced 4.746 million tonnes (279 lakh bales of 170 kg), while the US production was 4.7 million tonnes (mt). This year, the Indian production has been pegged at 5.34 mt (313.76 lakh bales) against the US output of 4.14 mt.
According to Cotlook’s estimates, production next season is likely to be 330 lakh bales or 5.61 mt in India, whilst that of the US is seen declining further to 3.19 mt.
Better prices
Indian production is seen up in view of better prices for growers during the last couple of years and increasing use of Bt cotton, which now makes up over 65 per cent of the total area under cotton. Production in the US and other growing countries, on the other hand, is estimated lower in view growers shifting to soyabeans, corn and wheat.
China continues to be the number one in production, consumption and imports. This is despite a fall of over one lakh tonnes in production from last year. Beijing is estimated to produce 7.62 mt cotton this season against last year’s 7.72 mt. Cotlook sees production rebounding to 7.65 mt next season.
On the exports front, shipments from the country this year are projected at 1.33 mt (78 lakh bales) against 1.09 mt (59 lakh bales). The US continues to be the largest exporter, shipping out 3.15 mt cotton (2.83 mt).
China and India clearly lead the pack on the consumption front. In fact, higher consumption by China sees it being the top importer despite being the largest producer. Imports by China are seen at 2.72 mt against 2.30 mt last year. In fact, Pakistan has emerged as the third largest cotton importer after Turkey. It will import 0.71 mt cotton against 0.5 mt last season.
Consumption
China’s cotton consumption, on the other hand, is projected to increase to 11.54 mt against 10.88 mt last year. Indian consumption is seen at 3.94 mt, the same as last year.
The ending or carryover stocks this season are seen topping 1.75 mt (100 lakh bales) against 1.63 mt (90 lakh bales). In contrast, the ending stocks are estimated lower in China at 3.62 mt (4.07 mt last season) and the US at 2.04 mt (2.06 mt).
Despite higher ending stocks in the country, there should be no cause for worry since global ending stocks are projected lower at 12.88 mt (13.32 mt).
In fact, Cotlook has pruned its cotton production estimates for 2008-09 season by 0.357 mt. This is because production in China is now estimated at 7.65 mt against 7.75 mt, while in the US, it is seen at 3.12 mt against 3.197 mt.
In view of the pruning, global production is projected at 26.31 mt against 26.42 mt made last month. The output, however, is likely to be higher than this season’s 26.03 mt.
Cotlook said the global sub-prime crisis continued to take toll on consumption prospects. But the net drawdown from the stocks was likely to be higher and over one mt of cotton would be wiped off the global balance sheet in view of the pruned estimated.
The agency sees India’s consumption rising to 7.31 mt against 7.13 mt this season.
Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture said consumption this season was seen up 1.4 per cent globally.
It said use by spinning mills in China, India, Pakistan and Turkey had increased sharply over the years.
China and India alone account for 57 per cent of the global cotton consumption, it said. The US agency also projected stock depletion of 2.5 per cent, which is seen keeping the prices firm in the short to medium-term.
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