Sugar M Grade Falls 15% In Muzaffar Nagar During 2007

The spot prices of Sugar M Grade recorded a fall in the year 2007 with the local cash prices in the benchmark Muzaffar Nagar market, slipping by 14.54 percent during the year. A record 283 lakh tonnes of sugar were produced in 2007, which proved to be a huge relief to consumers, as prices fell.A global glut slashed world refined sugar prices 12 percent in the past year, making the sweetener the worst-performing agricultural commodity over that period.

Spot Soymeal Up In Excess Of 60% In Indore, Kota And Nagpur

The spot prices of Soymeal recorded a rise in the year 2007 with the local cash prices in the benchmark Indore market, jumping by 67.95 percent during the year.The spot prices of Soymeal jumped 65.65 percent during the year in the Kota market.The spot prices of the commodity recorded a rise of 65.74 in Nagpur market, jumping by percent during the year.

Foodgrains Output Rises In 2006-07

The growth has picked up in the Indian agriculture sector to more than 4% during the past two years. Food grain production increased from 208.60 million tonnes in 2005-06 to 216.13. Million tonnes in 2006-07. Production of cotton increased from 18.50 million bales to 22.70 million bales, and sugarcane production recorded an increase from 281.17 million tonnes to 345.31 million tonnes during the same period.

Wheat Falls Limit Down On Year End Covering

Profit-taking and a technical correction drove nearby Chicago Board of Trade and Kansas City Board of Trade wheat futures limit down Friday.

CBOT March wheat ended down limit down, 30 cents lower, at $8.85 per bushel. KCBT March wheat fell 30 cents to $9.14, and Minneapolis Grain Exchange March wheat closed down 23 3/4 cents at $10.30.

Egypt bought 30,000 tons of U.S. soft red wheat, 30,000 tons of Russian wheat and 200,000 tons of Kazakh wheat for delivery Feb. 15 to March 15. However, the amount of U.S. wheat sold was too small to be bullish.

Weekly U.S. wheat export sales for the week ended Dec. 20 were 419,000 tons, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The total sales, including299,000 tons from the old-crop and 120,000 tons from the new-crop, were withintrade estimates of 200,000 tons to 550,000 tons.


KCBT March wheat was the first contract to fall limit down as profit-takingweighed on the market. Trading was thin as the market was in holiday mode, so the losses were accelerated.

Volume was thin at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange ahead of the New Year, and trading was choppy. The market mainly followed activity at the CBOT and KCBT.

Black Pepper May Go Up On Short Covering

There is a likelihood of black pepper rebounding in today's trade after the recent string of losses place the futures at an attractive level. Pepper futures ended sharply lower Saturday in thin trading after recording a moderate recovery in the previous session. The commodity ended at Rs 13491 per quintal for the NCDEX February 2008 futures, losing a heavy Rs 149 per quintal after touching an intraday low of Rs 13456 per quintal. The Open interest in the counter jumped a whopping 4.52% to 8887 lots in the shortened session on Saturday, as thin activities in the global markets and less export demand continued to dent the sentiments.

For today's session, a break above Rs 13550 should augur well for the counter and some short covering can be witnessed in the last session of the year.

Coffee Replanting Project To Start In June 2008

BANGALORE: The Coffee Board’s ambitious replanting programme is expected to kick off by June 2008, according to Jairam Ramesh, the Union minister of state for commerce. Currently, large tracts of India’s coffee plantations are under ageing plants which impact productivity and are not resistant to newer mutating pathogens.

Mr Ramesh, who was present at the launch of the new Arabica planting material ‘Chandragiri’, expects that one-third of the area under coffee would be under the new variety over the next 10 years. “Our aim over the next five years is to build our seed production capability,” he added.

The variety, named after the Chandragiri hill ranges in the state, is the first to be developed by the Central Coffee Research Institute (CCRI) after a gap of 21 years. It is a hybrid, derived by crossing Villa Sarchi, which is a semi dwarf mutant of Bourbon coffee, and Hibrido de Timor and is resistant to coffee leaf rust. By adopting regular cultivation practices, this variety can yield 1,150-1,800 kg coffee per hectare.

Mr Ramesh said CCRI was collaborating with the Centre for Cellular & Molecular Biology, Hyderabad, Madurai Kamaraj University (MKU) and UAS, Bangalore, to sequence the coffee genome, which would help develop varieties resistant to moisture stress.

Meanwhile, noted agri scientist MS Swaminathan called for a “humane” touch to agriculture and stressed the need to look at the human being (grower). At the launch function of a new variety of Arabica coffee planting material, he added the National Policy on Agriculture had suggested the “people” focus.

“We need a paradigm shift in our approach to agriculture and move from a commodity-centred focus to one where the farmer is the pivot. The way forward is on small farm management,” he added. He suggested coffee growers (bulk of whom have small landholding) could form small holders society and look at opportunities in areas like green agriculture. Unlike organic agriculture, green agriculture would allow the use of appropriate genetically-modified crops.

He said higher productivity in the agriculture sector could be only achieved through improvement in soil health and water management. Mr Swaminathan noted that while quality had become the byword to promote exports, Indian agriculture produce needed to adopt the same strategy while addressing the domestic market.

“Close to 94% of India’s agriculture produce is consumed locally. One can’t fathom why quality is not promoted while selling produce here,” he added. He indicated agencies like the Central Coffee Research Institute (CCRI) need to have policies which encouraged research and arrested attrition among the scientists.

Rubber Sees Weak Trend

Kottayam: Spot rubber fell lacking follow-up support from the consuming sector. Though RSS 3 (spot) improved to Rs 102.90 (101.70) a kg at Bangkok, it failed to cheer the domestic sentiments. In spot, sheet rubber declined to Rs 94 from Rs 94.50 a kg at Kottayam on purchaser resistance. Major manufacturers sidelined the market, as they were hesitant to enhance the quotes above current rates. The February contracts retreated to Rs 97.91 from Rs 98.35 a kg on MCX. On NMCE, the January futures declined to Rs 96.06 (97.03), February to Rs 97.36 (98.72), March to Rs 99.15 (100.58) and April to Rs 101.21 (102.21) per kg for RSS 4.

Cardamom Sees Upward Trend

Kochi: Cardamom prices continued their upward trend on tight supply during the week at sales held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Arrivals were only 18 tonnes. The reasons attributed to lower arrivals are severe cold in the growing areas and Christmas holidays. Fall of overall output during the current season coupled with hoarding of the produce has squeezed the arrivals. As the prices were ruling high, exporters were not active. Indian cardamom remained outpriced in the world market. The maximum price stood at Rs 640 a kg, while the minimum was at Rs 393. The 8mm bold fetched Rs 625 to Rs 650 a kg and 7mm to 8mm Rs 590-Rs 610 a kg. Bulk fetched Rs 570-Rs 580 a kg.

Gold Futures Rise As Traders Get Attracted Towards Save Haven

Gold futures rose for a fifth day on Friday to surpass $840 an ounce as the dollar fell to the lowest level in two weeks against a basket of other major currencies, increasing the metal's appeal as an investment haven.

Pakistani opposition leader and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's assassination on Thursday also played a role in the action in gold. Gold for February delivery ended the session up $10.9, or 1.3%, at $842.7 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It rose to an intraday high of $843.8 earlier, the highest in more than a month. For the week, gold gained $27.3, or 3.3%.

MCX Gold, which closed the session at Rs 10653 per 10 grams is now trading at Rs 10665 in the opening trades. Resistances for the contract are at 10699 levels.

The dollar index, which tracks the value of the U.S. currency against a basket of other major currencies, fell for a fifth day, down 0.5% at 76.205, the lowest since Dec. 14. A weaker greenback makes dollar-denominated gold more attractive as an investment alternative.

Oil Tops $97 As Political Tensions Mount

LONDON: Oil prices firmed almost $1 to above $97 a barrel on Friday, within sight of its record high, bolstered by a fall in US fuel inventories and mounting tension in Pakistan and northern Iraq.

Prices surged to a one-month high of $97.79 on Thursday after US crude and distillates inventories fell more than expected and in response to the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto. US crude was up 90 cents to $97.52 a barrel at the time of going to press. It hit a record high of $99.29 on November 21. London Brent rose 80 cents at $95.58 a barrel.

Crude oil inventories in the US, the world’s top oil consumer, now stand at their lowest in nearly three years after falling by 3.3 million barrels in the latest week.

Turmoil In Pakistan Drives Buyers To Safe Haven Gold

MUMBAI : Domestic gold continued its upward march in line with global markets for a third straight session on Friday. The metal prices surged mainly on the back over-charged political tensions in Pakistan, surging crude oil prices and the sliding dollar. Gold, which is considered as a safe haven asset, got a boost on Thursday after assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhotto in Rawalpindi.


In international markets, spot gold rose to a four-week high in thin trade on concerns over Pakistan, Iraq supported by dollar weakness and rising crude prices. In London, spot gold touched an intra-day high of $834 an ounce, its highest since November 26, and was last seen at $833.70/834.40 an ounce, from Thursday’s $824.70/825.50 .


Back home, gold attracted good support from speculators and Mumbai, major bullion market in India, took the lead from the front. Standard gold (99.5) prices jumped by Rs 95 in Mumbai before finishing the business at Rs 10,610 per 10 gm. Precious metal strengthened by Rs 65 at Rs 10,765 per 10 gm in Kolkata followed by Delhi, where prices were up by Rs 30 at Rs 10,610 per 10 gm. In Chennai, the metal closed with a gain of Rs 20 at Rs 10,540 per 10 gm.


Silver, on the other, came under pressure on lack of demand. In Delhi, ready silver (.999) melted by Rs 200 to Rs 19,000 per kg, while it lost Rs 100 at Rs 18,900 per kg in Kolkata. The white metal became cheaper by Rs 75 at Rs 19,395 in Chennai. The metal, however, closed higher Rs 5 at Rs 19,365 per kg in Mumbai on technical buying.

Tur Price Plunge To Spice Up Your Platter

MUMBAI: Prices of tur, or red gram, have fallen 19% in the physical market within a fortnight on new crop arrivals and subdued demand, traders said. In Latur, a major pulses trading hub, prices of tur, also called arhar, fell to Rs 2,400 per 100 kg on Thursday, from Rs 2,950 on December 13. In other major spot markets, too, prices have fallen by nearly the same margin.

“The new crop arrivals have started from Maharashtra and Karnataka, and crop is also good,” said Ashok Dhoot, a trader based in Jalgoan, Maharashtra.

Tur accounts for more than 50% of the country’s total kharif pulses production. Pressure from arrivals will increase in coming days and prices may go down by another Rs 100-200, said Nitin Kalantri, a trader from Latur. However, he said, prices will not fall sharply as there is less stock of last year’s produce.

Last year, bad weather, pest attack and diseases had affected tur output and pushed up prices sharply.

Commodity market regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC) had indefinitely halted tur futures trading in late January, when prices had risen to Rs 2,500 per 100 kg.

Tracking tur, chilli prices too eased in lacklustre trade on Thursday due to profit-taking, prompted by a weak spot and bumper crop hopes, analysts said.

The benchmark February contract on National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) had risen 13% so far in December. In Guntur, a major trading hub, the spot price fell by Rs 9 to Rs 4,096 per 100 kg. Arrivals will rise significantly after mid-January from Andhra Pradesh, a leading producer, and may pull down prices, said an analyst at Kotak Commodity Services Ltd.

In other commodities, turmeric fell in active trade on Thursday tailing weakness in the spot market, where arrivals increased as high prices prompted farmers and stockists to bring in more produce, analysts said.

Analysts said demand has decreased at higher level and increased arrivals are softening spot prices. In Nizamabad, a major trading hub in Andhra Pradesh, the spot price fell by Rs 43 to Rs 2,641 per 100 kg.

Futures may witness profit-booking in near-term, but they will go up in the long term on firm demand, said an analyst at Kotak Commodity Services.

Analysts said a lower crop estimate is providing traders an opportunity to speculate. According to traders, in 2008 turmeric output may fall by around 22% to 4.2 million bags each of 70 kg.

Edible Oil Prices Track Global Trend, Rise Despite Good Supplies

MUMBAI: Edible oil prices have gone up in the domestic market following a firm international soya complex and palm oil prices. Prices have gone up by Rs 1-Rs 1.5 per kg for all edible oils since the past 15 days despite good supplies.

In Mumbai local market, the palm oil prices are ruling at Rs 525 per 10 kg, soya oil prices are at Rs 560 per 10 kg while cotton seed oil prices are at Rs 540 per 10 kg levels. All prices are inclusive of taxes. A prominent Mumbai-based edible oil trader said that prices have moved up tracking firm international market.

“There is no supply crunch in the domestic market,” he said. He added that trade in soya oil is currently low as traders prefer to buy cotton oil which is cheap with 90,000-100,000 tonnes of it arriving in the market.

Locally, the prices are also being supported by demand from the solvent extraction plants and also demand of meal from China.

On NCDEX, the last traded price of soya oil was up by 1% at Rs 551.6 per 10 kg against the previous close, soyabean was up by 2% at Rs 2,034 per quintal while rape mustard seed was also up at Rs 466.65 per 20 kg.
Amol Tilak from Kotak Commodities is bullish and feels that February contract on NCDEX may touch 2,100 per quintal level while soya oil near month can touch Rs 565 per 10 kg.

According to Angel Commodities analyst Badruddin correction is expected in the short term.
Globally, the edible oil complex is up with concerns that there may not be enough vegetable oil inventories to meet the demand, mainly from China and India.

China, the biggest buyer of vegetable oils, imported 29% more in the first 11 months of this year compared with a year earlier. In India, the import of vegetable oils during November 2007 is up by 41% at 427,912 tonnes compared to 302,034 tonnes in November 2006.

Soya oil surged to its highest in 33 years in CBOT. Soya oil for delivery in March rose to 49.97 cents a pound in after-hours electronic trading.

Centre Bans Palm Oil Import Via Kerala Ports

KOLKATA: To protect the interest of coconut growers in Kerala, the Centre has banned palm oil product imports through any ports of the state. The government ban came through a notification dated December 24, 2007, issued by the directorate general of foreign trade (DGFT), under the Union commerce ministry.

This is the revised order of the DGFT on the ban issue. Earlier on October 16, it had issued a notification, banning import of palm oil products through Cochin port alone. Now with the modified order, no vessel carrying imported palm oil products is permitted to unload its cargo at any ports in Kerala.

With this revised order, the Centre moves one step ahead of the Kerala High Court to perhaps appease the coconut lobby of the state. Responding to the plea of coconut farmers and the processing industry, saying that imported palm oils are pushing down coconut oil prices, the Kerala High Court on December 20 had passed an order, banning unloading of imported palm oils at Cochin port only.

While pleading for a total ban on the import of palm oils into Kerala, coconut growers and the oil processing industry of the state have argued that the import has dented the share of the coconut oil market. This, as a result, has put pressure on coconut oil prices to their disadvantage.

But the edible oil industry in general does not see merit in the observation. An industry official said hardly 75,000 tonnes of palm oils used to be imported through the Cochin port, which alone cannot be held responsible for any dent in the coconut oil market of the state. If there had been any shrinkage in that oil market, that may have been caused due to shift in local consumers preference to other cooking oils, said the official.

Interestingly, no sharp downtrend in coconut oil prices has been noticed over the past eight months or so. The oil price which stood at Rs 4,563 per quintal in April, gradually moved up to Rs 4,788 in November and to Rs 5,125 per quintal in the last week of December at terminal markets in Kochi.

Soya Up, Chana Down On NCDEX

MUMBAI: NCDEX registered a turnover of Rs 1,852 crore and edible oil complex moved up. Active trade was seen in guar seed, soya oil, soyabean, pepper, rape mustard seed and turmeric.

Chana closed down at Rs 2,137 per quintal posting a turnover of Rs 152 crore, guar seed closed down at Rs 1,633 per quintal posting a turnover of Rs 246 crore. Soya oil closed up at Rs 551.8 per 10 kg recording a turnover of Rs 392 crore while soyabean closed up at Rs 1,996 per quintal registering a turnover of Rs 356 crore. Rape mustard seed closed up at Rs 460 per 20 kg posting a turnover of Rs 147 crore.

MCX posted a turnover of Rs 3,932 crore till 5 pm and bullion turnover was Rs 1,857.71 crore. Gold February ‘08 traded down at Rs 10, 478 per 10 gm. Silver March 08 contract was down at Rs 19,368 per kg.

Copper contracts turnover was Rs 579.99 crore and the February delivery contract went up at Rs 277 per kg. Turnover of all zinc contracts was Rs 449 crore and zinc December contract moved up at Rs 97.90 per kg. Turnover of all nickel contracts was Rs 104.11 crore and the December 07 delivery contract rose at Rs 1,078.50 per kg.

Turnover of all lead contracts was Rs 187.51 crore and the December contract went up at Rs 105.25 per kg. In the energy counter, crude oil contracts clocked a turnover of Rs 422 crore. Crude Oil January 08 contract moved down at Rs 3, 751 per barrel.

Yellow Metal No Longer Music To Players As Prices Hit High Note

MUMBAI: Physical buying of gold has slowed down with volatility in gold prices driving away the market participants. Prices of gold in Mumbai since past one week have gone up to Rs 10,550 per 10 kg levels from Rs 10,100 levels.

Bullion trader Suresh Hundia said there is no demand at such prices. “Demand will come after January 3, when the market participants are active and prices come down,” Mr Hundia said.

Strong energy prices, geo-political tensions and weakness in dollar are all supporting gold prices despite thin volumes on exchanges.

Crude oil for February delivery on Wednesday rose $1.84 or 2% to settle at $95.97 a barrel which was the highest close since November 26. On Thursday, it traded at $95.65 a barrel levels, down 32 cents in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

An Ahmedabad-based custom house agent said that even gold imports are drastically down mainly due to high and fluctuating gold prices. “In addition to high prices, currently investments are happening in equities and real estate which is also affecting imports,” said the agent.Gold on Comex rallied in US trading session to one-month peak though on Thursday at 3.30 IST the February contract was down by a dollar at $828.5 per ounce.

Gold spot prices by 3.30 IST however were up by 30 cents at $824.30. On MCX gold February contract was marginally down at Rs 10,495 per 10 kg by 3.30 IST.

According to Debjyoti Chatterjee of Mape Admisi Commodities trading volumes and liquidity are expected to be thin due to year end holidays and a clear trend would emerge only in the first week of January.

“Gold is currently following crude oil movements and dollar and if they go up, gold can further go up and may also come down with selling pressure from the hedge funds,” Mr Chatterjee said.

According to Angel Commodities report, in the short term, by year end, gold could see some liquidation pressure due to large build up in speculative long positions and year end book squaring by funds.

Bhutto Assassination Sends Gold Soaring

MUMBAI: Gold prices jumped to 4-week high in European and the US markets on Thursday after Pakistani Opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was assasinated in Rawalpindi. Taking cues from global markets, domestic gold prices also recorded hefty gains on Thursday.

In Kolkata, standard gold (99.5) surged to touch a four-week high of Rs 10,700, up Rs 140 per 10 gm over the previous close. The yellow metal rose by Rs 130 at 10,580 per 10 gm in Delhi, followed by Mumbai with a jump of Rs 120 at Rs 10,515 per 10 gm. The precious metal traded Rs 100 higher at Rs 10,520 per 10 gm in Chennai. Also ready silver (.999) surged by Rs 235 at Rs 19,470 per kg in Chennai.

Mumbai too extended gains by Rs 190 at Rs 19,360 per kg followed by Delhi, where the metal strengthened by Rs 65 at Rs 19,200 per kg and Kolkata, where the metal rose by Rs 50 before ending at Rs 19,000 per kg.

Oil Zooms Past $96 On Turkish Airstrikes In Iraq

Oil prices rose to a one-month high above $96 a barrel on Wednesday ahead of a US government report expected to show crude inventories in the world’s top consumer fell for a sixth straight week.

Prices also gained as Turkish war planes bombed Kurdish guerrilla targets in northern Iraq on Wednesday, a reminder to investors of risks to crude supplies in the Middle East.

US crude rose $1.94 to $96.07 a barrel, the highest level since late November. London Brent was up $2.02 at $94.72. Volume remained light due to the holiday in the UK.

US inventory data, to be released on Thursday, a day later than normal due to the Christmas holiday, is expected to show crude stocks fell by 1.8 million barrels as bad weather in Texas and the Gulf slowed imports.

Crude stockpiles in the US are already at their lowest level in nearly three years, stoking fears of a winter supply crunch.
Adding support, the Turkish military said its offensive against outlawed separatist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) guerrillas inside Turkey and across the border in northern Iraq would continue.

“Further Turkish military efforts against the PKK rebels keeps the geopolitical pot boiling in that oil flows from Iraq could potentially be disrupted,” Mike Fitzpatrick, vice president at MF Global, wrote in a research note.

Oil supplies from Iraq’s pipeline to Turkey are sporadic because of technical problems and sabotage. Most of Iraq’s oil is exported from the country’s southern ports.

Oil has been holding in a range below the all-time peak of $99.29 reached last month as dealers weigh tightening inventories against the threat that an economic slowdown will cut consumption.

Forecasters, including the International Energy Agency and producer group Opec, have cut projections for world oil demand growth in 2008. Besides concern about the economy, oil has also been pressured by forecasts of warmer-than-usual US winter weather, which would curb demand for heating fuel.

US heating demand will be 17% below normal in the week ending December 29 as temperatures rise above average in most of the key heating regions, according to the National Weather Service. Even so, oil in New York is up more than 50% since January, the biggest gain since 2002. The price has averaged around $72 this year, up from $66.25 in 2006.

According to an agency report, analysts expect oil prices to average above $77 a barrel next year as tight Opec supplies and Middle East tensions outweigh concerns about a sluggish US economy.

Mixed Trend At Agri Counter On NCDEX

MUMBAI: Mixed movement was witnessed in agri commodities with spices closing up. NCDEX registered a total turnover of Rs 1,625 crore with active trade in chana, guar seed, soyabean, soya oil, pepper and rape mustard seed.

Pepper closed up at Rs 13,522 per quintal posting a turnover of Rs 192 crore, chilli closed up at Rs 3,847 per while jeera closed up at Rs 10,435 per quintal posting a turnover of Rs 87 crore.

Chana closed down at Rs 2,149 per quintal registering a turnover of Rs 184 crore while guar seed closed down at Rs 1,665 per quintal posting a turnover of Rs 172 crore. Soyabean closed down at Rs 1,963 per quintal with a turnover of Rs 244 crore, soya oil closed flat at Rs 546.65 per 10 kg recording a turnover of Rs 190 crore while rape mustard seed closed down at Rs 456 per 20 kg with a turnover of Rs 186 crore.

MCX registered a turnover of Rs 1,981.9 crore with bullion turnover of Rs 934 crore that consisted of gold contracts worth Rs 556 crore and silver contracts worth Rs 378 crore.

Gold February contract traded up at Rs 10,381 per 10 gm while silver March contract was up at Rs 19,262 per kg.
In the base metals segment, copper contracts turnover was Rs 280 crore and the February delivery contract went down at Rs 275 per kg. Turnover of all zinc contracts was Rs 93 and zinc December contract was down at Rs 95.60 per kg.

Turnover of all lead contracts was Rs 66 crore and the December contract went down at Rs 104.70 per kg. In the energy segment, crude oil contracts clocked a turnover of Rs 295 crore. Crude oil January contract moved up at Rs 3, 714 per barrel.

Mustard Seed Sowing Spells 1MT Shortage

KOLKATA: Sowing mustard seeds in the ongoing rabi season appears to have been hit by a slow start. The first round of survey by the agriculture ministry suggests sowing of oilseed has so far been complete in 57.2 lakh hectares between October 1 and December 14 against a coverage of about 64.2 lakh hectares during the same period last year.

With oilseed sowing expected to finish next month, the edible oil industry fears that the acreage under mustard seed in the 2007-08 rabi season may be lower than the last season when a total of 72 lakh hectares were brought under oilseed cultivation.

Going pari passu with the early sowing trend, the oilseeds output in the current rabi season is also expected to fall by about 1 million tonne (mt) to 6 mt from the last year’s level of 7.1 mt, according to the preliminary estimate by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). However, one thing is reassuring.

The market is yet to take cognisance of the early prediction. Rather banking on a considerable oilseed stock from the last year’s production, lying with the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (Nafed) and individual stockists and farmers, traders are still waiting to take a long term view on oilseed price.

According to industry sources, Nafed is still sitting pretty on a mustard seed stock of 3.5 lakh tonnes, which were procured by the federation over the last three years as part of its price support operation. And, there is still a steady flow of mustard seed supply for crushers from the old stock.

About 13-14 tonnes of mustard seeds still keep on arriving on a daily basis in its major mandis at Hapur, Delhi and Sirsa. This has prompted traders to maintain a stable outlook about mustard seed and the oil. The spot market price of mustard seed continues to remain bound within a range of Rs 463-Rs 485 per quintal over the last few days.

Interestingly, the recent flash shower in Rajasthan, raising hopes of some more coverage of the oilseed in the major growing state, has prompted traders to take a bearish view for short term futures contracts. Taking a bearish view, the February contract of mustard seed has ended lower by 8 points to Rs 460 per 20 kg on Wednesday.

Turmeric Gets An Edge, But May See Correction

MUMBAI: Turmeric futures prices on commodity exchange NCDEX, which touched a record high of Rs 2,850 per quintal on Wednesday, are set for correction in the short-term on expectations of selling pressure in the market, traders and analysts said.

“At present, prices are trading at pretty high levels. Prices may see some correction in the short-term and are projected to trade on negative note on account of selling pressure in the market,” Karvy Comtrade analyst Veeresh Hiremath said.

Prices have gone up from Rs 2,600 per 100 kg to Rs 2,850 in December. The most active April 2008 contract edged up by Rs 732 from Rs 2,118 per 100 kg since the beginning of the contract to Rs 2,850 on Wednesday.
A bullish trend was also witnessed in the physical market. Spot turmeric prices rose by Rs 35 to Rs 2,687.80 per 100 kg on Wednesday.

The demand from exporters coupled with the estimated 15% decline in turmeric production in 2007-08 are affecting the prices, traders said, adding that farmers in some regions have opted for crops like soyabean, chilli and maize over turmeric.

Many farmers are growing short duration crops instead of turmeric which is a nine-month crop.

“I am growing chilli this time because it is cultivated in a relatively shorter duration and gives better returns than turmeric which is a nine-month crop,” Warangal-based farmer Sriramulu said. Further, recent reports suggesting pest attacks on crops in Nizamabad and Warangal could lead to a further fall in output.

On an average, India produces about 9 lakh tonnes of turmeric per annum and has domestic demand of 7.5 lakh tonnes. The commodity is mainly grown in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Orissa, West Bengal, Gujarat, Meghalaya and Maharashtra, among others.

However, warehouses have huge stock of nearly 18 lakh bags (70 kg each bag). With fresh arrivals expected in February, traders will offload their old stock between December and January. “This may put pressure on prices,” Hiremath said.
India is the largest producer, consumer and exporter of turmeric and contributes about 78% of the global production and 60% to the total global exports.

Onions Bring Tears To Farmers

MUMBAI: Onion prices, which had shot up sharply a few months back, have now tumbled on mounting arrivals and subdued export demand, and are expected to remain weak for the next two months, traders said.
“Arrivals have nearly doubled in last fortnight. Demand isn’t changed that much,” said Vilas Bhujbal, a trader based in Pune.

Wholesale price in the country’s largest onion trading hub, Lasalgaon in Maharashtra, fell to its lowest level this year at Rs 373 per 100 kg on Wednesday, from a peak of Rs 1,951 on October 1.

“The arrivals will rise further in coming weeks. Prices will remain weak or may fall by another Rs 50 to Rs 100 per 100 kg,” said CB Holkar, chairman of National Agricultural Co-operative Marketing Federation of India (Nafed).
Congestion in the ports was affecting exports, increasing availability in the domestic market and pulling down prices, he said.

The kharif season onion harvest contains high moisture and reduces its shelf life, forcing farmers to bring their produce to market as early as possible, traders said. They said prices will remain weak for the next two months till kharif season arrivals are over.

In mid-2007 onion prices had risen substantially, which led farmers to cultivate more of the tuber crop, leading to a glut. Onion production in kharif season is likely to rise 30% to 1.7 million tonnes on increased acreage, the National Horticulture Research and Development Foundation estimated earlier.

Refined Soy Oil Futures May Elevate

The NCDEX Refined soy oil futures may go up further in today’s session are likely to add to the previous gains given the buoyant start to the global edible oils markets post Christmas.

Some buying was witnessed in both soy oil and palm oil early morning in Asia. CBOT soy oil has gained 31 points to quote at 47.46 cents per pound for the near month delivery while the CPO futures have gained in excess of RM for all the major contracts to quote at new all time highs.

The flurry of buying, which has returned to the markets in primarily due to the rebound in oil prices, which are threateningly up and trading at $94.43, up 30 cents for the benchmark NYMEX crude futures.

Following this, we may expect the NCDEX January refined soy oil futures to open higher and the counter may eye the intraday resistance of Rs 550 once again. The level has acted as a stiff barrier for the futures in the last session and we may expect it to hold once again in today’s outing.

Jeera Slips In Early Moves

The NCDEX Jeera futures slipped in early trades today as the market participants continued to pull the benchmark futures down, in what looks like yet another the start of yet another session with bears having an upper hand.

The NCDEX February contract closed at Rs 10625 per quintal in last session, down Rs 94 per quintal as traders eyed a slack movement in pepper- the other major counter in spices section.

This has been hovering over Jeera as well and the futures were not able to hold on in early moves today. The contract is trading down the previous closing price by Rs 33 and quotes at Rs 10592 per quintal right now.

We may expect a support of Rs 10533 to hold on during the intraday moves and a break below this level may bring further sell off in the contract.

NCDEX Pepper May Find Support

NCDEX Pepper futures are likely to find a support around Rs 13700 in today’s trade. The benchmark NCDEX February futures closed the last session at Rs 13773 per quintal with the traders selling the contract during the intraday trades.

However the February contract is likely to move up further as the expiry of the particular series would approach around a time when the domestic harvesting season is on a wane on the export demand would be peaking up.

The current profit booking, to an extent is triggered by a lull in the international markets with most of the overseas markets, particularly in Europe and US witnessing a year end lull and making the local futures market participants to close their previous longs following lack of cues.

Today’s session might also witness a suppressed activity though there is room for the counter to jump from Rs 13700 levels. Intraday players can go long around this level with a of Rs 13850 levels.

Oil Prices Likely To Open With Gains On MCX

Oil prices jumped in light trading last week after the government reported that consumer spending surged last month, raising hopes that the economy will weather the crisis roiling credit markets and that demand for oil and gasoline will strengthen.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose 45 cents to settle at $94.44 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On MCX, Light Sweet Crude Oil was trading at Rs 3675 per barrel at the closure. The same closed the session at Rs 3683 per barrel. Crude Oil resistances are at 3710 levels.

While Oil prices were higher, trading volumes ahead of the holidays were about 25 percent of what they would be on a normal day. Crude futures have retreated from November's near $100-a-barrel level, as OPEC boosted supplies and several forecasters cut demand predictions.

Other energy futures also rose. January heating oil futures rose 1.96 cents to settle at $2.6091 a gallon, while January gasoline futures added 5.19 cents to settle at $2.3795 a gallon. January natural gas futures rose 5.3 cents to settle at $7.19 per million British thermal units. In London, Brent crude rose $1.58 to settle at $92.46 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Dollar Declines To Bring Rally In Gold

Dollar declines brought rally in Gold prices as the same surged on COMEX at the trading session before the Christmas and the same is likely to bring some more upsurge in today’s session as well. Rising Crude prices also supported the gains. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, edged down 0.1% at 77.70. Gold, as a dollar-denominated commodity, benefits from dollar weakness.

Most-active gold futures for February is at $815.10 an ounce on the COMEX. MCX Gold also modified itself by Rs 185 during the week to close the session trades at Rs 10359 per 10 grams.

Gold warehouse inventories were unchanged at 7.4 million troy ounces as of late Thursday, according to Nymex data. Silver stockpiles fell by 26,694 troy ounces to stand at 133.8 million troy ounces, while copper supplies edged down to 15,184 short tons, off 112 short tons.

US equities rallied ahead of the holidays, with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq up by around 1.5% in the New York afternoon. Prompting the gains were upbeat US economic data, which revealed continued resiliency with the American consumer. The greenback jumped to its highest level against the yen since November 7th at 114.16 while trading sideways versus the euro and sterling.

The US economic reports consisted of November consumption, core PCE, personal consumption, personal income and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The November adjusted consumption exceeded estimates for an increase to 0.6% from 0.2%, instead jumping to 1.1% while personal consumption for November edged up to a 0.5% reading from a flat reading in the previous month.

Lukewarm Movement In Oil

Oil futures traded in tapered range of $93.84-93.81 a barrel in the session so far today. Lack of news in the markets and lessened trading volumes as the western region New Year and Christmas holiday season resulted in a very lukewarm movement in crude oil.

Crude oil for delivery in January has hardly changed, trading at $93.6 per barrel up around 30 cents in the late electronic session. The counter is expected to trade in the range of $91.90-95 is the US floor open outcry session today. The US markets remain closed tomorrow on account of the Christmas.

MCX oil futures for the benchmark contract are at Rs 3675 per barrel in the after hours electronic session. It should trade in the range of 3645 - 3705.

Gold Declines In Asia

Gold futures are trading lower in early Asian trade today, amid profit booking after the metal had hit an intraday high of $816.3 an ounce nearly 2 week high level on Friday last week.

The trading activity in the yellow metal somewhat tepid is expected to be thin, as holiday season in the Western world begins.

Comex Gold futures are currently quoting at $ 813.40 an ounce, down 2$. The day traders are suggested to go short on spurts and long on dips. The resistances at 815 and 816.50 and a breach of that can lead to $818.80. The supports are at 812.80, 809.30, and 803.30.

MCX gold futures for the most active contract are trading down Rs 20 at Rs10335 per 10 grams. The upside targets are at Rs 10360, Rs 10395, Rs 10408. The supports are at Rs 10314.50, Rs 10290 and 10264. the open interest fro the counter is up 0.3% indicating fresh selling.

Crude oil is seen trading down very moderately after rallying on Friday bolstered by increased consumer spending in US, its largest consumer in world.

Oil Trading Above $93 A Barrel

Crude oil futures are trading firm at $93 in the early Asian trades today. The trading volumes are expected to be thin for rest of the year as the Holiday season in the western world initiates.

Oil prices jumped on Friday buoyed by the surged in US consumer spending, raising hopes that the economy will weather the crisis roiling credit markets and that demand for oil and gasoline will strengthen. Oil futures settled at $93.31 up $2.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

International oil futures are trading marginally lower at $93.06 down 3 cents in the early electronic session today. It is expected trading range is from $92-95 for today.

Domestic Crude oil futures are quoting at Rs 3660 down Rs 11. It may trade in the range of 3645 and 3720. A break of Rs 3645 may see the prices moving down to 3620.

Gold Futures Surge, Resistances Materialised

International as well as the domestic gold futures for the February contract have hit their resistances of $816.50 and Rs 10360 respectively.

In the currency trading today, sterling pound was hurt further today after the Home track limited said house prices fell by 0.3 % in December, following a 0.2 % decline in November. House prices fell the most in three years in December, and the threat of more declines may cause the property market to seize up in 2008. UK’s currency fell to more than a four month low today at 1.9800 versus the US counterpart. Dollar also gained against the Yen, but traded mixed against the single currency.

The day players are suggested to follow the buy on dips and sell on rally strategy. Dollar traded mixed versus the Euro due to no economic data from both the countries today while the crude oil also remained weak for most part in the day so far. Following this kind of movement in crude and dollar the bullion is expected to trade in a range today.

Comex Gold futures for the upfront contract were last seen quoting at $815.40 an ounce, and the domestic futures were trading down by marginal Rs 4 at Rs 10320 per 10 grams. The $812.20 should act as a good support for the international bullion.

Sen Report, Online Spot Exchanges May Put Commexes On Fast Track In 2008

MUMBAI: The commodity market is expect to get a boost in ‘08 with the submission of the Abhijit Sen Committee report. The coming year could also prove to be its watershed year as new initiatives like the commodities and power online spot exchanges would bear fruits.

The Union government earlier this year banned futures trading in some agri commodities and set up a committee headed by planning commission member Abhijit Sen to look into the impact of futures trading on price of essential commodities and also suggest ways to reduce the impact and increase the association of farmers with the futures market.

The coming year would see the online spot exchanges both in commodities and power taking off. The first power exchange in the country — the Indian Energy Exchange, promoted by Financial Technologies and MCX — is likely to become operational next year while the second one, proposed by NTPC-NCDEX led consortium is yet to take off.

Both the exchanges have actively been mooting the development of spot exchanges. NCDEX commenced spot trading through its wholly-owned subsidiary, NCDEX Spot Exchange. The spot exchange launched the country’s first trade in sugar (S30) on pilot basis in Maharashtra and will add other commodities soon. MCX also formed Safal National Exchange in partnership with FTIL and the National Dairy Development Board (NDDB) for perishable commodities in this year.

This year the two prominent Mumbai-based exchanges MCX and NCDEX saw a turn of fortunes .While MCX showed a modest growth of around 27% in turnover till November this year at Rs 23.6 lakh crore as against last year, NCDEX volumes dipped by almost 42 % to Rs 6.74 lakh crores.

There have been other policy delays in terms of the long-standing FCRA amendment bill and permission for MF and banks participation. Also, guidelines in relation to the shareholding pattern in the exchanges are awaited. “But year 2008 is expected to be a year of events,” according to Religare Commodities head Jayant Manglik.

Amid all the rigmarole that the markets have been facing, the regulator of the commodities market, the Forward Markets Commission (FMC), has a new chairman B C Khatua. After taking office in May, he has been very active and seeks a greater participation from the farmers.

At regular intervals, he has been convening meetings with the stakeholders in the markets — members, exchanges, hedgers, brokers as well as farmers. He plans to continue awareness programmes that have started since the last two years and is strongly in favour of mobilising aggregators to enable farmers to collectively hedge their produce.

While some people are positive, other market participants are somewhat cautious. According to Anand Rathi Commodities’ Kishore Narne, the year has neither been bad nor too good. “While volumes have decreased quantitatively, the rise in prices have ensured reasonable value growth. This phase is not unexpected and I foresee that the next year could also see a similar run,” he said.

As far as developments in the individual multi-commodity exchange levels go, we saw Intercontinental Exchange expressing strong interest in picking up stake in NCDEX. It has been reported that the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) may pick minority stake in MCX and they are waiting policy guidelines on foreign direct investment (FDI) in commodity exchanges.

Both the exchanges diversified their area of operations. While NCDEX launched some non-agri commodities on its platform like plastics and light sweet crude oil, MCX set the benchmark and defining contracts for agri contracts like potato, jute, mentha oil and cardamom refined soya oil inviting wider participation from exporters and corporate.

NBHC, a group company of Financial Technologies and also the warehousing partner of MCX has grown its business exponentially this year. It handles storage capacity of over 1.15 mt with over 1 mt under collateral management. NBHC has facilitated warehouse receipt financing of over Rs 2,200 crore. The warehousing capacity of NCDEX on the other hand reached one million tonnes and they extended deliveries in 30 commodities.

Higher In Featureless Trade

ICE Futures U.S. pit-traded cotton settled modestly higher Friday after trading in a tight-range, featureless session ahead of the holiday weekend.

March futures settled up 41 points at 66.58 cents a pound, and May settled 42 points higher at 67.95 cents. Cotton pit trading opened slightly lower then built on gains and held near the highs for the remainder of the session, except for a dip ahead of the close.

The March contract settled near its high in a tight 55-point range on the day, for its strongest settlement in five weeks. Early trading showed a lack of aggressive selling and scattered buying, which was possibly spillover from firm grains prices.

ICE pit cotton trade will be closed Dec. 24-25 for the Christmas holiday.

On the week, the March contract gained 73 points. ICE daily cotton stocks decreased by 7,298 500-pound bales Thursday to total 549,959 bales with just one bale awaiting review and 6,944 decertification orders.

Open interest increased by 539 positions Thursday to total 223,879 as traders sold 353 May and bought 188 March and 601 July. Volume was estimated at 10,731 on the screen and 1,475 on the floor, according to exchange data. In options, approximately 419 calls and 1,125 puts traded.

Dollar Declines Ignite Rally In Yellow Metal

Dollar declines last night brought rally in Gold prices as the same surged by more than on COMEX. Rising Crude prices also supported the gains. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, edged down 0.1% at 77.70. Gold, as a dollar-denominated commodity, benefits from dollar weakness.

Most-active gold futures for February closed up $12.20 or 1.5 percent at $815.40 an ounce on the COMEX. MCX Gold also modified itself by Rs 185 during the week to close the session trades at Rs 10355 per 10 grams.

Gold warehouse inventories were unchanged at 7.4 million troy ounces as of late Thursday, according to Nymex data. Silver stockpiles fell by 26,694 troy ounces to stand at 133.8 million troy ounces, while copper supplies edged down to 15,184 short tons, off 112 short tons

The yen suffered widespread losses against the majors in the Friday session as traders shifted back into the carry trades. US equities rallied ahead of the holidays, with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq up by around 1.5% in the New York afternoon. Prompting the gains were upbeat US economic data, which revealed continued resiliency with the American consumer. The greenback jumped to its highest level against the yen since November 7th at 114.16 while trading sideways versus the euro and sterling.

The US economic reports consisted of November consumption, core PCE, personal consumption, personal income and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The November adjusted consumption exceeded estimates for an increase to 0.6% from 0.2%, instead jumping to 1.1% while personal consumption for November edged up to a 0.5% reading from a flat reading in the previous month.

The PCE index revealed lingering inflationary pressure in the economy, up 0.6% m/m from 0.3% and 3.6% compared with a 2.9% in the previous year. The core figures were slightly higher than the previous readings at 0.2% m/m and 2.2% y/y for November. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey fell to 75.5, less than anticipated but down from the preliminary December reading of 75.5.

Edible Oil Cos’ Latam Venture Gets A Leg-Up

KOLKATA: Indian edible oil industry’s recent endeavour to buy land for raising oilseed cultivation in Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina and setting up downstream units there got one more boost. The Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) has agreed in principle to extend a line of credit to willing companies which want to try their luck in those Latin American countries.

Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) executive director BV Mehta, told ET that SEA as a facilitating body for global ventures by Indian edible oil companies has recently held a meeting with top officials of Exim Bank to explore the possibility of tapping the bank finance for such ventures. After hearing the business prospect of Indian edible oil companies in those countries, the bank has shown interest in supporting the endeavour.

However, the bank has indicated to SEA that it will take a final decision on the matter after seeing the techno-economic feasibility study report, which is now being prepared by a two-member team of SEA, said Mr Mehta. SEA has recently sent the team to those countries to collect all relevant information about scope of Indian investment there. The draft report is scheduled to be ready by February, 2008. SEA in its meeting with the Exim Bank has pointed out that the bank finance for such projects may be available under its priority sector lending programme, under which 70% of project costs by Indian companies may be available from the bank as loans.

A preliminary assessment by SEA suggests that to make oilseeds farming commercially viable, especially in Paraguay and Uruguay, soyabean cultivation needs to be raised in atleast 500 hectares. At current prices, this requires a minimum investment of Rs 5 crore for purchase and development of land there.

Indian edible oil companies became aware of huge business opportunities in those Latin American countries after SEA led a delegation to those countries in June this year. During its interaction with local oil processing industries, SEA found that there are lots of opportunities for Indian oil companies to start commercial ventures there. As soyabean is the major oilseed crop in those countries, naturally choice for Indian companies stumbles to soyabean cultivation and setting up downstream oil processing units.

On preliminary investigation, it was found that investment conditions are very congenial especially in Uruguay and Paraguay, with no ceiling on land holding, liberal immigration laws, easy availability of visa, cheaper land prices, uniform state incentives to foreign investment on par with local farms and above all approval for 100% FDI in plantation and industry.

But what has attracted them most is the yield rate of soyabean in those countries. According to SEA, the yield rate of soyabean in those countries vary between 2.5-4.5 tonne per hectare compared to India’s 950 kg per hectare. The major reason for such a high yield rate in the Latin American countries is usage of genetically modified soyabean seed. Higher level of moisture in land due to non-tillage, mechanisation of farming in large sized holdings and better farm management practices are other reasons.

With restrictive Indian laws on land holdings, it is not possible for local business houses to acquire land for captive cultivation. This has made Indian edible oil companies to look for land elsewhere. If they can manage to do so in countries from where they are already sourcing imports and where land is abundant and cheap, it helps them to cut costs as well, said Mr Mehta.

Centre May Cancel Wheat Tender Bid As Prices Hit Roof

NEW DELHI: The Centre is still to take a decision on importing more than three lakh tonnes of wheat on account of high price quoted by global trading firms, an official source said on Sunday.
“We are yet to decide on the STC wheat import tender,” the source said. The decision on cancelling or importing the grain may be taken on Monday, the source added.

The state-run State Trading Corporation (STC) had floated the tender on December 10 and bids were valid till December 22. The STC had on December 17 received offers from three multinational firms for importing wheat at a maximum price of $579.6 a tonne, a jump of almost 45% over the price decided by two other government agencies for buying the grain barely weeks ago.

Swiss firm Glencore, US trading company Cargill and Germany’s Toepfer submitted bids in a range of $459.9 to a record of $579.6 per tonne for supply of about 3.2 lakh tonnes, trade sources had said.

An official of a Mumbai-based multinational agri-trading company said it was unlikely that STC will import the wheat at such a high price.

The commerce ministry had earlier this month allowed PEC to import 1.5 lakh tonnes of wheat at $396.9 per tonne. Earlier, on November 23, MMTC decided to buy 3.4 lakh tonnes at an average price of $400.19 a tonne.

Australia-based JK International would supply wheat to PEC, while Cargill and Glencore would supply to MMTC.

The government has decided to import about 23 lakh tonnes of the grain during 2007-08. Before this STC contract, orders had already been placed for import of 17.9 lakh tonnes by STC, MMTC and PEC. Out of these, STC has already imported 13.1 lakh tonnes.

Firm Finish In Very Quiet Trading

Arabica pit-traded coffee futures prices on ICE Futures U.S. closed slightly higher and near the session high Friday, in light, pre-holiday trading. March coffee closed up 45 points at $1.3415.

In London robusta trading overnight, prices were firmer in holiday-type trading, too. The London market is unlikely to see any significant price moves until the New Year begins.

Brazilian coffee exports for the Dec. 1-20 period were 1,384,020 60-kilo bags, according to the Brazilian Green Coffee Exporters Council, or Cecafe. That compares with 1,488,287 bags exported in the same period last month.

Weather in Brazil coffee regions has seen showers and thunderstorms the past 24 hours. More rains are in the forecast, along with warmer temperatures. These weather conditions are deemed favorable for the budding trees in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais.

Copper Prices Rally As Chinese Demand Soar

Chinese demand increase brought a rally in Copper prices, on MCX Copper prices gained Rs 10.45 to close at Rs 271.30 per kg. On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months gained $285 to $6830 a metric ton. The metal reached a record $8,800 a ton in May 2006. Stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped for a sixth straight week to 25,722 metric tons, the lowest since February. Chinese copper use jumped 38 percent in the nine months ended Sept. 30, the International Copper Study Group said yesterday.

LME inventories showed a increase of 2650 tonnes in Copper to 198325 tonnes.

In a report released, Production of primary aluminium in the world outside of China grew by 3.8% year-on-year to 22.64 million tonnes in Jan-Nov 2007, according to the latest preliminary figures released by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). That growth rate looks very subdued relative to what is going on in China but it has doubled from last year’s 1.7% and daily average production hit a new record of 69,200t in November itself.

Aluminum inventories bounded by 2050 tonnes to 928525 tonnes. Aluminum was now at $ 2417 per tonne. Aluminum MCX near month contract was trading at Rs 95.55 per Kg at the closing. Supports for the contract are at 94.95 levels.

Among othe inventories Nickel and Lead derailed by 120 and 100 tonnes respectively while Zinc depleted by 25 tonnes.

Pepper Likely To Extend Gains

On Friday, NCDEX Pepper futures benchmark February contract closed up 2.32 % at Rs13577, traded in the ranges of Rs13648- Rs13270 per quintal. The open interest for the contract increased 16.59 % to 7744 contracts as against Thursday, indicating fresh buying and the volume traded increased to 5922 lots from 3092 lots as against Thursday.

In the daily technical charts, NCDEX Pepper February contract closed above 9 day EMA of Rs13356 and far below 50 day EMA of Rs13837 per quintal, indicating short term bullishness and long term weakness. Pepper February closed above 9 day SMA of Rs13232 per quintal, supporting the intraday bullishness.

The MACD is in the negative zone but approaching the positive zone supporting upward trend. The technical indicator 14 day RSI is at 50.74, indicating that the contract is neither in the over sold or over bought region.

Technically NCDEX Pepper February is having intraday resistances at Rs 13726 and Rs 13876. and supports at Rs13348 and Rs 13120 per quintal respectively and Rs 13498 per quintal will be crucial price level.

Technically the overall trend is positive so Pepper futures are expected trade with gains in today’s trading sessions .

NCDEX Scraps Additional Margins

The trading and clearing members are hereby informed that, as per the directives received from the Forward Markets Commission and in terms of the Bye-laws, Rules and Regulations of the Exchange, the additional margins imposed from time to time in respect of Pepper, Jeera, Chana, Guar gum, Guarseed, Red Chilli, Mentha Oil and Maize contracts are withdrawn. The above would be applicable with effect from the beginning of day on December 24, 2007.

Above Normal Rains, Strong Winds Take Toll On Coffee Crop

BANGALORE: The Coffee Board’s latest post-monsoon survey projects a 9.1% fall in the country’s 2007-08 coffee crop from the previous year. The 2007-08 coffee crop is projected to fall to 262,000 tonnes from the previous year’s 288,000 tonnes. The projected crop of 262,000 tonnes is the lowest in the past 10 years. Arrivals of the 2007-08 Arabica coffee beans have already started. Robusta bean arrivals peak in February-March.

Coffee Board chairman GV Krishna Rau told ET here on Friday that the projected fall in the 2007-08 crop was essentially due to excess rains during the monsoon months from June to September. In some cases, there was the added factor of strong winds.

The post-monsoon survey projects a 7.2% fall in India’s 2007-08 Arabica crop to 92,500 tonnes (from the previous year’s 99,700 tonnes). The survey projects a 9.9% fall in India’s 2007-08 Robusta crop to 169,500 tonnes (188,300 tonnes).

The survey projects a 7.1% fall in the Karnataka crop to 191,575 tonnes (206,025 tonnes). Karnataka grows more than two-thirds of India’s coffee. The survey projects a 7.9% fall in Karnataka’s 2007-08 Arabica crop to 73,950 tonnes (80,250 tonnes). The 2007-08 Karnataka Robusta crop is projected to fall by 6.5% to 117,625 tonnes (125,775 tonnes).

The survey projects a 17.6% fall in Kerala’s 2007-08 coffee crop to 49,000 tonnes (59,475 tonnes). The 2007-08 Kerala Arabica crop is projected to fall by 5.5% to 1,300 tonnes (1,375 tonnes). The 2007-08 Kerala Robusta crop is projected to fall by 17.9% to 47,700 tonnes (58,100 tonnes).

The survey projects a marginal fall of 0.7% in Tamil Nadu’s 2007- 08 coffee crop to 18,100 tonnes (18,225 tonnes). The 2007-08 Tamil Nadu Arabica crop is projected to rise by 0.7% to 14,050 tonnes (13,950 tonnes). The 2007-08 Tamil Nadu Robusta crop is projected to fall by 5.3% to 4,050 tonnes (4,275 tonnes).

The survey projects a 22.2% fall in the 2007-08 crop in the non-traditional areas (NTAs, including AP, Orissa, the North-East) to 3,325 tonnes (4,275 tonnes). The NTAs Arabica crop is projected to fall by 22.4% to 3,200 tonnes (4,125 tonnes). The Robusta crop is projected to fall by 16.7% to 125 tonnes (150 tonnes).

Govt May Extend Sugar Export Sops By Another Year

NEW DELHI: The Centre is likely to extend sugar export subsidy by another year till April 2009 to help the industry liquidate surplus stock on expectations of a record output of over 30 million tons in 2007-08 season.

“Let us see what will be the total export in the sugar season. It looks like that we have already crossed about 1.5 million tons of export and if this trend continues we will also definitely give serious thought to extension by another one year,” Union food and agriculture and food minister Sharad Pawar told reporters here on Friday. He was speaking on the sidelines of 73rd annual general meeting of Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).

The export sops announced by the Centre early this year is valid till April 2008. It is defraying internal transport, handling and marketing charges and ocean freight on sugar exports at Rs 1,350 per tonne for mills located in coastal area and Rs 1,450 for non-coastal states. According to ISMA, the apex industry body, India’s sugar production is estimated to be around 30-31 million tons in 2007-08 season ending September next year against 28.3 million tons in the previous year.

With consumption remaining stagnant at about 19 million tons, the country is likely to have a surplus of 22 million tons in the current season, including an opening stock of about 11 million tons from 2006-07 season. The industry is expecting to export 2.5 million tons in 2007-08 season, of which 65% would be of raw sugar.

Earlier, Mr Pawar said the local sugar industry was now facing a situation of “very high stocks, low prices of sugar and lack of demand for its sugar”.

On the minimum distance for setting up a new sugar factory, Mr Pawar said, “farmers want more sugar factories in the given area so that the competition among sugar factories get increased and they get better price for their produce”.

However, he rejected the industry’s demand to increase the minimum distance for setting up a new sugar factory to 25 km from the existing 15 km. “We carefully considered this suggestion while amending Sugarcane (control) Order in November 2006 and found that 15 km distance is sufficient to support a sugar factory of 5000 TCD (tonnes crushed per day),” he said.

On the suggestion made by the ISMA president P Rama Babu to rationalise the sugarcane pricing by linking its price to market price of sugar, he said the Centre held discussion with some of the key sugar producing states on this issue.

The minister asked the industry to make all efforts to increase yield of sugarcane rather than insisting for raising the minimum distance criterion. Mr Pawar urged the captains of the sugar sector to make further progress in converting the ‘sugar factories’ to ‘sugar complexes’, which he said was the need of the hour.

“The response was positive but considering the sensitive nature of the matter, firm commitments and conclusive decisions could not be taken,” Mr Pawar said assuring that centre would persuade the states from announcing “irrationally” high state advised price (sap) for sugarcane. Pawar also said a notification, allowing sugar mills to directly convert sugarcane juice to produce ethanol, would be issued within a month.

Highlighting the sops given to sugar industry throughout this year to help mills clear the cane arrears, he asked the companies to quickly avail the benefits provided by the centre to clear the arrears, which stood at about Rs 2,600 crore at the end of 2006-07 season.

The food minister also noted that timely action by the Centre would not only help in clearing cane price arrears of the last sugar season, but would also prevent accumulation of arrears in the current season.

Speaking in the same venue, the ISMA president said the sugar industry wants de-control of the sector from government’s rules and regulations including levy system.

He urged the government to extend the buffer stock of sugar for another year to help industry come out of the cyclical woes. The government has created a sugar buffer of 50 lakh tonnes for one year enabling the industry to receive a total of Rs 1,850 crore to clear the dues.

Cardamom E-Auction Gains Pace

KOCHI: As the cardamom auctions turn online, the high price of the commodity is keeping both growers and traders happy. E-auctions of cardamom now take place five days a week at Vandanmettu in Kerala and two days at Bodinaikanur in Tamil Nadu while manual auctions have been stopped by the Spices Board. Any difference of opinion over the e-auction system among the traders and growers seems to have disappeared with prices looking up.

The average cardamom price at Vandanmettu on Wednesday was Rs 530 per kg. The last recorded highest price of cardamom was Rs 622 per kg in 2001-02, secretary of Cardamom Growers Association KK Devassia said. Last year, the average auction price was Rs 350 per kg.

The e-auctions have been welcomed by small traders and growers who feel it will help to counter the efforts of big cartels. The large traders are not entirely happy. But they are not complaining as the prices are ruling high.

According to them, e-auctions have taken away the competitive spirit of the auctions.
They also suspect the ability of e-auctions to handle large lots of cardamom. With a shortfall in production, the arrivals have been on the low side.

On Wednesday it was just 27 tonne. The current system of e-auctions is able to handle only up to 45 to 50 lots per hour. The real test of the e-auction will happen when the arrivals increase substantially, probably by next season, according to some traders.

Canadian Peas Arrival Likely To Stabilise Prices

NEW DELHI: The pulses prices in the domestic market may ease with the arrival of 93,000 tonne of yellow peas (white matar) of Canadian origin by this weekend. Public sector cooperative Nafed is expecting the arrival of 48,000 tonne of yellow peas by December 22 while state-owned trading firm PEC hopes the shipment of about 45,000 tonne of pulses will reach Indian ports in two to three days.

“We expect the remaining quantity of the 1.45 lakh tonne contracted yellow peas to arrive by December as we have already received 97,000 tonne,” a senior Nafed official said.

Yellow peas constitute the largest share in India’s pulses import basket leading to its prices in Canada surging to $550 per tonne from $300-350 a tonne in a year. Out of the total pulses import of over 7.43 lakh tonne from Canada in 2006 (January-December), peas have a share of 7.03 lakh tonne where yellow peas corner major 97-98%. Canada hopes to export over 1 million tonne(mt) of pulses to India in calendar year 2007, an industry body official said.

Meanwhile, state trading agencies — Nafed, STC, MMTC and PEC — have contracted to import 12.29 lakh tonne till December 12. Out of this amount, 7.99 lakh tonne of pulses comprising urad, yellow peas, tur, masoor, chana and moong have arrived since April this year. The government had asked these PSUs to import 15 lakh tonne during April-December this year while subsidising them 15% of their import cost.

Out of the 12.29 lakh tonne contracted pulses, yellow peas constitute the maximum at 8.13 lakh tonne while the remaining are urad, tur, moong and masoor. STC has contracted to import 2.6 lakh tonne of yellow peas out of which 2.23 lakh tonne have already arrived in India while PEC has brought into the country over 83,000 tonne from its contracted 1.9 lakh tonne.

MMTC has contracted for 2.03 lakh tonne of yellow peas and the arrival stood at 1.68 lakh tonne. Government-owned cooperative Nafed has contracted for import of 1.6 lakh tonne of yellow peas and the arrival so far is 97,760 tonne. Since the actual shipment may be 10% more or less of the contracted quantity, Nafed is expecting an arrival of a total 1.45 lakh tonne of yellow peas.

Jeera Likely To Extend Gains

On Thursday, NCDEX Jeera futures benchmark January contract closed up 1.34 % at Rs10110, traded in the ranges of Rs10218- Rs9990 per quintal. The open interest for the contract decreased 11.12 % to 4857 contracts as against Wednesday, indicating short covering and the volume traded increased to 8001 lots from 7068 lots as against Wednesday.

In the daily technical charts, NCDEX Jeera January contract closed above 9 day EMA of Rs9871.50 and far below 50 day EMA of Rs10367.00 per quintal, indicating short term bullishness and long term weakness. Jeera January closed above 9 day SMA of Rs9783.70 per quintal, supporting the intraday bullishness.

The MACD is in the negative zone but approaching the bullish zone, supporting the upward trend. The technical indicator 14 day RSI is at 51.20, indicating that the contract is neither in the over sold or over bought region.

Technically NCDEX Jeera January is having intraday resistances at Rs 10207 and Rs 10323 and supports at Rs9982.3 and Rs 9873.6 per quintal respectively and Rs10098 per quintal will be crucial price level.

Technically the overall trend is positive so Jeera futures are expected trade with gains in today’s trading sessions .

Turmeric Extend Prior Gains On Fresh Buying

NCDEX Turmeric futures extend the prior gains in the early trading sessions on fresh buying support. The benchmark April Turmeric futures traded in the ranges of Rs2738-Rs2721 per quintal. The counter is currently trading at Rs2728, up Rs5 per quintal and the open interest for the contract increased 1.33% to 26630 contracts, indicating fresh buying.
The market sources reported that Traders do not want to give delivery on the exchange platform as the expect prices on the spot market to increase.

Chilli Extend Loss

NCDEX Chilli futures extend the last trading sessions loss on short selling activities. The benchmark February Chilli traded in the ranges of Rs3734-Rs3713 per quintal and the counter is currently trading with loss at Rs3713, down Rs15 per quintal. The commodity witnessed short selling, the open interest for the contract increased 1.43% 2115 contracts, indicating short selling.

The market sources reported that large warehouse stocks coupled with expectations of new arrivals are pressurizing the chilli futures prices.

Spices Imports Drop On Rise In Unit Value

The highest drop was in the case of pepper import which during the first seven months of the current year fell by 4,617 tonnes. Availability of good quality paprika indigenously has pushed down its imports to 245 tonnes. Mace imports down to 176 tonnes from 512 tonnes.

The increase in unit value seems to have pushed down imports of certain spices substantially during April–October 2007, which in turn has resulted in an overall decline in total imports from that of the same period last year.

During April–October total imports stood at 45,876 tonnes valued at Rs 320.63 crore as against 53,506 tonnes valued at Rs 367.63 crore.
Drop In Pepper Import

The highest drop was in the case of pepper import which during the first seven months of the current year fell by 4,617 tonnes. As against 12,167 tonnes in April–October 2006 valued at Rs 98.52 crore, the arrivals during the period this year stood at 7,550 tonnes valued at Rs 106.31 crore. The unit value stood at Rs 140.81 a kg compared to Rs 80.97 a kg in April-October 2006.

The Indian parity during April–October 2007 remained almost at par with that of the price of other origins due to a squeeze in the world supply position and as a result, imports were found to be uneconomical.
Cardamom Doubles

Meanwhile, imports of cardamom (small) was more than doubled because of the high prices of the indigenous commodity, average price of which ruled above Rs 400 a kg. Whereas, the prices of other origins were at Rs 89.80 a kg this year as against Rs 97.23 in April-October last year.

However, imports of cardamom (large) has shown an upward trend despite an increase in the unit value of imported commodity to Rs 96.80 a kg from Rs 84.30 a kg due to short supply within the country.

Availability of good quality paprika indigenously has pushed down its imports to 245 tonnes during April–October 2007 from 999 tonnes in the same period last year.
Coriander

Increase in the unit value of coriander from that of the previous year has brought down its imports to 620 tonnes from 1,153 tonnes. But, short supply of cumin in the country had pushed up its imports to 1,960 tonnes from 309 tonnes last year despite a significant increase in its unit value, which has gone up to Rs 91.70 a kg from Rs 75.68 a kg.
Other Spices

Similarly, significant increase in the unit value of mace has pushed down its imports to 176 tonnes from 512 tonnes. The unit value of it went up Rs 247.44 a kg to Rs 286.97 a kg. Imports of nutmeg also declined on the same ground.

There has been a substantial increase in the imports of ginger fresh/dry which had shot up to 11,000 tonnes from 8,168 tonnes in April–October 2006. The unit value was a meagre Rs 3.50 a kg as against Rs 13.79 a kg last year.

Imports of poppy seed showed marginal decline while that of cloves marked a substantial increase.

Meanwhile, there have been reports of illegal imports of certain spices in to the country by under invoicing and bringing in the commodity grown elsewhere in the world as the product of a SAARC country to avail benefits under preferential trading agreement (SAFTA).

Spices: Chilli Extend Weakness On Continued Short Selling

NCDEX Chilli futures extend the last trading sessions loss on continued selling pressure. The benchmark February contract drifted lower to Rs3703 from the sessions high of Rs3754 per quintal. The counter is currently trading under pressure with loss of Rs35, at Rs3740 per quintal and the open interest for the contract decreased 0.24% to 2105 contracts, indicating short selling.

Energy Futures Rise After Dispirited Supplies Of Crude

Energy futures rose Wednesday after the government said supplies of crude and heating oil fell sharply last week while gasoline inventories jumped.

In its weekly inventory snapshot, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reported crude supplies dropped by 7.6 million barrels last week, much more than the 1.5 million barrel decline analysts surveyed,had expected.

Traders expect crude supplies will rebound in next week's report, which will reflect deliveries that were delayed by the fog. Meanwhile, investors were focusing on other aspects of the report, which were mixed. For instance, heating oil supplies dropped by 2.1 million barrels last week, much more than the expected 500,000 barrel decline. But gasoline inventories jumped by 3 million barrels, more than the 700,000-barrel increase analysts had expected.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose $1.16 to settle at $91.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. MCX Crude Oil closed the session at Rs 3597 per barrel up Rs 67.

Crude supplies at the closely watched Nymex delivery terminal in Cushing, Okla., rose by about 100,000 barrels last week to 17.4 million barrels Still, the increase pressured prices. Falling supplies there are seen as a symptom of a tight market, and those concerns ease when Cushing inventories rise, as they have for several weeks. Other energy futures were mixed. January gasoline rose 2.76 cents to settle at $2.3319 a gallon on the Nymex, and January heating oil rose 4.25 cents to settle at $2.5979 a gallon.

But January natural gas rose 3.8 cents to settle at $7.179 per 1,000 cubic feet on the Nymex. In London, February Brent crude rose $1.36 to settle at $91.48 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. Oil prices have since fallen as OPEC boosted production and several forecasters lowered their predictions about how fast demand for oil and gasoline is growing.

Freight rates charged by the large tankers that bring oil from the Persian Gulf to the U.S. have jumped recently, a sign that Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries oil exports continue to rise. Wednesday's EIA report meanwhile shows that gasoline demand fell by about 61,000 barrels last week and was up only 0.3 percent over the past four weeks compared with the same period last year, the EIA said. Analysts consider demand growth under 1.5 percent to be low.

The EIA also reported that refinery activity fell by 1 percent last week to 87.8 percent of capacity. Analysts had expected refinery activity to grow by 0.3 percentage point to 89.1 percent of capacity. While crude imports fell last week, gasoline imports rose by 123,000 barrels a day to an average of 1.1 million barrels a day.

Guar Seed Stays Cool Ahead Of EU Report

MUMBAI: Guar seed benchmark January futures were steady in a lacklustre market, as traders were cautious ahead of a crucial EU final report on Indian guar gum.

“There was no trigger for strong moves... the EU final report may decide directions,” a Karvy Comtrade analyst said. An EU team which visited India during October to check for possible toxin contamination in Indian guar gum will submit its final report in the next few days.

In a draft report submitted three-weeks ago, the EU team asked for separation of food and industrial grade guar gum to reduce contamination. Exporters, who ship majority of the world’s guar gum, are concerned and are not buying in the spot market, depressing spot prices by nearly 30%, compared to the same period last year, analysts said.

Spot guar seed remained unchanged at Rs 1,572 per 100 kg in Bikaner on buying by stockists, a trader said. Physical markets saw arrivals of around 40,000 bags of 100 kg each, of which around 20,000 bags were bought. Seed stocks in exchange warehouses stood at 44,307 tonnes, as per latest data available.

Meanwhile, turmeric futures showed a negative trend as traders booked profits for second consecutive session, after a rise since the middle of last week.

“The medium term outlook is very positive as exports demand continues to be good. After some correction, prices will rise and may touch Rs 3,000 per 100 kg,” an analyst Indiabulls Commodities, said.

The December contract rose 6.5%, April contract rose 6% in five consecutive trading sessions, while May contract had risen 5.6% in six sessions up to Monday. According to analysts, turmeric sowing in the current crop year has been about 10-15% lower, compared to last year and hence availability of turmeric from new crop is likely to be less in 2008.

In 2007, turmeric production was 5.4 million bags and carryover stock from 2006 was 600,000 bags. Total consumption in 2007 is estimated at 4.8 million bags and 1.2 million bags are expected to remain as carry-over stock for next year. In Nizamabad, a major trading hub in Andhra Pradesh, the spot price eased Rs 2.40 to Rs 2,451.80 per 100 kg. Stocks at exchange warehouses was unchanged at 1,024 tonnes, which is lower-than-expected.

Soya, Pepper Move Down On NCDEX

MUMBAI: In domestic futures, on NCDEX, the total volumes were Rs 1,465 at 5 pm at the end of trading. There was active trade in soya oil, soyabean, guar seed, pepper and rape mustard seed.

Soya oil closed marginally lower at Rs 535 per 10 gm from Rs 536, and total volumes were Rs 282.51 crore. Soyabean December contract closed at Rs 1,909 per quintal from Rs 1,912. Volumes were Rs 184.48 crore.

Pepper fell to Rs 12,642 per quintal from Rs 12,734. Volumes were Rs 162.36 crore. Mustard seed was higher at Rs 464 per 20 kg from Rs 453. Trading volumes were Rs 129.91.

On MCX turnover at 5 pm was Rs 4,035.94 crore. Bullion turnover was Rs 2,040.14 crore. Gold contracts, including gold mini, varied between a loss of Rs 81 and gained Rs 42 per 10 gm. Gold February traded up 0.12% at Rs 10, 274 per 10 gm.
Silver contracts, including silver mini fluctuated between a loss of Rs 233 and Rs 188 per kg. Silver March contract was up by 0.17% at Rs 18,723 per kg.

In the base metals segment, copper contracts turnover was Rs 408.13 crore. The February delivery contract was up by 1.44 % at Rs 257.75 per kg. Turnover of all zinc contracts was Rs 287.20 crore. Turnover of all nickel contracts was Rs 34.47 crore.

Jeera Likely To Extend Loss

On Tuesday, NCDEX Jeera futures benchmark January contract closed down 0.84 % at Rs9725, traded in the ranges of Rs9848- Rs9671 per quintal. The open interest for the contract decreased 1.87 % to 5997 contracts as against Monday, indicating long positions liquidation and the volume traded decreased to 3537 lots from 4749 lots as against Monday.

In the daily technical charts, NCDEX Jeera January contract closed below 9 day EMA of Rs9742.70 and far below 50 day EMA of Rs10364 per quintal, indicating short term and long term weakness. Jeera January closed above the 9 day SMA of Rs9716.90 per quintal, supporting the intraday bullishness.

The MACD is flat in the negative zone supporting downward trend. The technical indicator 14 day RSI is at 40.43, indicating that the contract is neither in the over sold or over bought region.

Technically NCDEX Jeera January is having intraday resistances at Rs 9825 and Rs 9925 and supports at Rs 9648 and Rs 9571 per quintal respectively and Rs 9748 per quintal will be crucial price level.

Technically the overall trend is negative so Jeera futures are expected trade with loss in today’s trading sessions .

Refined Soy Oil To Edge Upwards

The NCDEX Refined soy oil futures are likely to trade in a mixed manner in today’s session, after a buoyant movement in the last few days. Amid the overnight global cues, Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended lower Tuesday, falling on profit taking from speculative funds amid the absence of fresh supportive news.

However, Soy product futures ended mixed, with Soymeal retreating on profit-taking pressure in unison with declines in soybeans. January Soymeal settled $2.20 lower at $322.50 per short ton. January soyoil finished 4 points higher at 46.21 cents per pound.

However, today the sentiments have turned slightly positive with crude oil futures showing a moderate pullback. The soy oil futures are quoting up 12 points for the January contract on CBOT while the CPO futures are up RM 20 for the benchmark delivery on BMDE.

Outlook
We may expect the NCDEX January soy oil futures to open a tad higher today though the recent decline in the open interest is indicative that a large number of traders have unwound their long open positions as the contract ran to life time highs in the current week. A test of Rs 544 is possible for NCDEX January is today’s session though fresh longs can be avoided given the fact that the prices are lingering around life time highs.

Hong Kong Gold Opens Shraply Higher

Gold opened on a very positive note in Asia today. Hong Kong Gold opened at US 801.00-801.70 per ounce or HK$7435 per Tael today. The previous close was US$ 794.70 – 795.40 ounce or HK$ 7373 per Tael. The commodity has added $6.30 per ounce in Asia in early moves.

Geopilitical Tensions Ease Crude

Oil prices fell after Kurdish officials said Turkish troops that entered Iraq early Tuesday to pursue Kurdish guerrillas returned to Turkey, reducing worries that the conflict would cut oil supplies from the region.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery fell 14 cents to settle at $90.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as low as $88.88 when the Turkish withdrawal was announced. Analysts attributed some of Tuesday's price volatility to the January contract's expiration. February crude fell 97 cents to settle at $90.08 a barrel on the NYMEX.

MCX Crude Oil closed the session at Rs 3530 per barrel down from Rs 3556.

Iraq exports about 1.5 million barrels of oil a day, most of it to Asian customers. Exports have not been seriously disrupted since 2003, when the war in Iraq began _ although the Energy Department says the country's main oil pipeline has been a constant target of insurgents.

January heating oil futures lost 4.25 cents to settle at $2.5554 a gallon on the Nymex, while January gasoline futures gave up 3.11 cents to settle at $2.3043 a gallon. Natural gas rose 10.6 cents to $7.141 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Chana Likely To Extend Gains

On Tuesday, NCDEX Chana futures benchmark January contract closed up 0.58 % at Rs2264, traded in the ranges of Rs2268- Rs2238 per quintal. The open interest for the contract decreased 2.10 % to 35,380 contracts as against Monday, indicating short covering and the volume traded decreased to 24,610 lots from 35,980 lots as against Monday.

In the daily technical charts, NCDEX Chana January contract closed above 9 day EMA of Rs2245.40 and far below 50 day EMA of Rs2276.00 per quintal, indicating short term bullishness and long term weakness. Chana January closed above 9 day SMA of Rs2231.60 per quintal, supporting the intraday bullishness.

The MACD is in the negative zone supporting downward trend. The technical indicator 14 day RSI is at 49.37, indicating that the contract is neither in the over sold or over bought region.

Technically NCDEX Chana January is having intraday resistances at Rs 2275.3 and Rs 2286.6 and supports at Rs 2245.3 and Rs 2226.6 per quintal respectively and Rs 2256.6 per quintal will be crucial price level.

Technically the overall trend is positive so Chana futures are expected trade with gains in today’s trading sessions .

Dollar Resolution Cappes Gains For Yellow Metal

Firmness in the U.S. dollar capped investment demand for the precious metal last night. The rally for Dollar which initiated during the previous week is still holding the currency in a suitable zone against the majors. Dollar is quoting at 1.4406 against the EURO. Demand lacklusterness from India is also letting the prices of Gold to come down, as it is the end of festive season.

COMEX Gold shredded 80 cents and was at $793 per ounce, MCX Gold was also negatively biased with losses to the tune of Rs 74 and closed the session at Rs 10170 per 10 grams. Supports for the contract are at 9975 and 9960 levels.

The Federal Reserve last week released its report on industrial production and capacity utilization in the month of November, showing that industrial production increased by a little more than economists had been expecting.

The report showed that industrial production rose 0.3 percent in November following a revised 0.7 percent decrease in October. Economists had expected production to increase by 0.2 percent compared to the 0.5 percent decrease originally reported for the previous month. Capacity utilization in the mining industry rose to 92.3 percent in November from 91.3 percent in October, while manufacturing capacity utilization edged up to 79.9 percent from a downwardly revised 79.7 percent.

Gold-warehouse inventories edged down 795 troy ounces to stand at 7.4 million troy ounces as of late Thursday, according to NYMEX data. Silver stockpiles dropped by 1 million troy ounces to stand at 133.5 million troy ounces, while copper supplies edged down 179 short tons to stand at 16,372 short tons.

Jeera Likely To Extend Gains

On Monday, NCDEX Jeera futures benchmark January contract closed up 0.82 % at Rs9807, traded in the ranges of Rs9865-9727 per quintal. The open interest for the contract decreased 3.09 % to 6111 contracts as against Saturday, indicating short covering and the volume traded increased to 4749 lots from 2718 lots as against Saturday.

In the daily technical charts, NCDEX Jeera January contract closed above 9 day EMA of Rs9743.30 and far below 50 day EMA of Rs10,389 per quintal, indicating short term bullishness and long term weakness. Jeera January closed above 9 day SMA of Rs9721.90 per quintal, supporting the intraday bullishness.

The MACD is in the negative zone supporting downward trend. The technical indicator 14 day RSI is at 42.70, indicating that the contract is neither in the over sold or over bought region.

Technically NCDEX Jeera January is having intraday resistances at Rs 9872.3 and Rs 9937.6 and supports at Rs 9734.3 and Rs 9661.6 per quintal respectively and Rs 9799.6 per quintal will be crucial price level.

Technically the overall trend is positive so Jeera futures are expected trade with gains in today’s trading sessions .

Crude Oil Slumps On News Of Output Boost From OPEC

Oil prices fell last night when an OPEC official said the cartel may boost output, calming concerns about tight supplies. Data released by oil tanker-tracker Petrologistics shows OPEC oil exports have already risen by about 400,000 barrels a day, analysts said.

As the oil supply picture is improving, concerns about weakening demand are rising. Analysts said Friday's government report that consumer inflation jumped in November by the largest amount in more than two years continues to weigh on markets.

Light sweet crude for January delivery fell 64 cents to settle at $90.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. MCX Crude Oil closed the sessiomn at Rs 3556 per barrel.

While oil prices rose slightly last week, they remain nearly $10 a barrel below November's record highs. Many analysts believe the market's sentiment has changed from bullish to negative amid a number of reports that demand and economic growth are weakening.

Oil prices fell today despite two weekend developments that, several weeks ago, would have sent prices sharply higher: Word that Turkish forces attacked Kurdish rebel positions inside Iraq and the call by a Nigerian militant group that rebels in the oil-rich African nation should unite and attack the continent's largest oil industry.

The dollar contributed to that weakness by stabilizing against other currencies in recent days. Oil prices have risen this fall partly due to speculative buying by investors who see crude futures as a hedge against the dollar, which has weakened this year. Also, oil futures bought and sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the dollar is falling.

Other energy futures mostly fell today. Gasoline futures for January delivery fell 0.63 cent to settle at $2.3354 a gallon on the Nymex while January heating oil fell a cent to settle at $2.5979 a gallon. January natural gas rose a cent to settle at $7.035 per 1,000 cubic feet. In London, Brent crude fell 40 cents to settle at $91.29 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Low Supplies, High Exports Boost STC Wheat Tender Prices

NEW DELHI: The State Trading Corporation (STC) on Monday received offers for 330,000 tonnes of wheat from three global firms at sky-high prices against last week’s tender, reflecting shrinking supplies and a surge in US wheat futures on strong exports.

Cargill emerged as the lowest bidder for the tender issued by the STC, offering 65,000 tonnes of grain at $459.90 per tonne, trade officials said. “The market is very, very high, prices are hitting the roof,” an STC official told reporters before bids were opened.

“It will be a tough call for the government to buy at such exorbitant prices,” said Atul Chaturvedi, senior vice-president of trading house Adani Exports.

But another analyst said with prices likely to rise further, the government needed to agree substantial imports now. “Trading companies have offered less than the 350,000 tonnes which the STC had sought. It shows a major crunch in international markets,” said Avinash Raheja of Mumbai brokerage Commtrendz Risk Management.

US wheat futures jumped more than 3% and surpassed $10 a bushel for the first time as strong US export numbers amid dwindling world supplies prompted funds and investors to rush to cover positions. Wheat prices have nearly doubled since the start of the year and industry officials said crop worries and strong global demand will keep them firm until a clearer picture emerges in January about US plantings.

With world wheat stocks seen dwindling to 30-year lows by the end of the 2007-08 marketing year, and India and neighbour Pakistan scouting the market for large volumes, traders see little chance of a big correction in prices. Australian wheat exports are likely to be nearly halved as stocks run out after two successive years of drought.

Glencore offered the STC 200,000 tonnes to be delivered at two Indian ports for $462-465 per tonne, traders said, while Toepfer put forward 65,000 tonnes of wheat for 4 ports in the range of $562-599 per tonne.

The state-run firm PEC this month decided to buy only 150,000 tonnes of wheat at around $395 per tonne against a tendered quantity of 350,000 tonnes.

Three state-run firms, MMTC, PEC and STC have been authorised by the government to import up to one million tonnes of wheat, equally split between them.