Monday, March 3, 2008

Loan Waiver Sends Wrong Message To Borrowers

Both Indian agriculture and the farmers are ailing. Growth rate in the agriculture sector has been a poor 2.6 per cent while the GDP is around 8.7 per cent and industrial and service sectors have touched double digit growth rates. During the last decade, agricultural production has just averaged 1.2 per cent.
Though statistically speaking 219 million tonnes of foodgrain production is a record, it is well known that production has reached a plateau, necessitating massive imports of food grains, pulses and edible oils. The prices of agro commodities have been rising,but are outpaced by the costs of cultivation. World over, the prices are rising and in the ultimate analysis the food security of the country is threatened.

Viewed in this context, no one can dispute that farming and farmers needed a stimulus. But is the loan waiver scheme the right kind of solution? Can the staggering outlay of Rs 60,000 crore help the agrarian economy and boost production? The measure may provide temporary relief, but don’t address the long-term issues.

Repayment culture

The farmers’ investment needs for the kharif’08 season are to be provided by the banks, helping them make a fresh start. It would be simplistic to assume that all would seek fresh credit or they would get it easily. The repayment culture gets badly impacted and it would be several years before some semblance of loan discipline can be restored. Given the surcharged and tense environment in the arena of loan recovery, the l waiver will only further vitiate the atmosphere.

To fulfil their mandatory obligations banks might implement the scheme of waiver and even may disburse fresh loans and oblige the gov

Too many flaws

From the farmers’ perspective too, the scheme has too many flaws. First, it sends a message to the honest borrowers, for the umpteenth time, that they have been unwise in repaying their loans. Second, the farmers who have invested their own resources or borrowed from money lenders, with no borrowings from the banks, stand to lose out. Third, the conscious and genuine farmers who have invested more of their savings than borrowings would be deprived of the benefit from this generous scheme.

An unintended lesson from the example will encourage farmers to borrow to the hilt from the banks, keeping their savings intact or diverting them to unproductive purposes. And the fear of the banks taking any concrete action for recovery is remote, thanks to the prevailing atmosphere in the agrarian field.

Why leave them out

Fourth, the scheme covers only crop loans, so farmers from the rain-fed areas who would have invested on constructing wells and pump sets would be discriminated against. These farmers have to pay loans out of crop yields only. Logically, the instalments and interest on such loans outstanding as on the December 31, 2007 should count for the waiver, as otherwise they too continue to be defaulters and would be ineligible for fresh loans.

Unwittingly the Government would be extending greater support to the farmers from the irrigated areas who do not make any investments on minor irrigation, causing injustice to the deserving farmers from the dry belt.

The real issues

Granting that no such scheme can be foolproof or satisfy all sections, the waiver is full of pitfalls and does not help solve the real issues for farmers or the sector. At best, the sop can provide some temporary respite.

Better alternative

Rs 60,000 crore is a sizeable amount of taxpayers’ money from a macro point of view. This could have been better utilised to bring in sustaining benefits. Even in terms of providing monetary relief to the affected, crop insurance schemes would be a better alternative. The money can be used to strengthen the insurance institutions and subsidise the premium. The crop losses can be compensated on a rational basis in case of insurance than an across-the-board and indiscriminate write-off.

Fallacy

It is also a fallacy to believe that credit or its waiver alone can mitigate the problems of the afflicted farmers. Timely availability of the right kind of fertilisers, genuine and quality seeds is very important. The marketing component of the chain is weak and the Government can improve the storage, transport and processing facilities of grains, fruits and vegetables and prevent distress sale of produce. It is well known that where the rural infrastructure is good, the plight of farmers reduce and productivity is better.

The waiver scheme smacks of populism and can’t revive agricultural production or provide sustainable relief to farmers.

Saturday, March 1, 2008

'Save Tiger' Not On FM's Mind, Only Rs 50 Cr Allocated

New Delhi: Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Friday announced an allocation of Rs 50 crore to the National Tiger Conservation Authority to protect the big cat.

While presenting the national budget for 2008-09 at the Lok Sabha, he expressed concern over the dwindling number of tigers, calling the situation "alarming".

This amount is the Budget for 29 tiger reserves across India, averaging less than Rs 2 crore per tiger reserve.

While numbers allocated may have doubled since last Budget for tigers, environmentalists might feel the allocation still remains abysmally low

Mobile Handsets To Become Costlier

New Delhi: Mobile phone users would now have to shell out more money for buying new handsets, with the government proposing to levy one per cent excise duty on them.

In his Budget speech, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said: "Excise duty of one per cent, called National Calamity Contingent Duty, is now imposed on polyester filament yarn, which is the only yarn suffering this excise duty. I propose to remove that duty and shift the levy to cellular mobile phones."

"It will definitely increase the prices of mobile phones," LG Business Group Head (GSM) Anil Arora told PTI when asked about the impact of the proposed move.

The proposal may translate into a corresponding one per cent hike in price of mobile handsets. However, a full impact of this needs to be reviewed, a Nokia spokesperson said.

Echoing similar sentiments, Indian Cellular Association President Pankaj Mohindroo said the proposed move of levying one per cent excise duty would increase the prices of mobile phone sets.

When asked how much the prices would go up, he said, "The price rise will not be killing... it will be minimal."

Global cellular handsets majors Nokia, Samsung, Motorola and LG have their mobile manufacturing plants in India.

Budget: India Inc Ready With Charter Of Expectations

New Delhi: Corporate India is keeping its fingers crossed, hoping for Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) to be abolished or at least reduced to five per cent.

Here are the major expectations of the various industry sectors:

Textile industry hit by a rising rupee expects the textile up-gradation fund increased to Rs 1,700 crore.

The Information Technology sector hope its tax holiday is extended beyond 2009.

Cement, which had been hit hard in the last Budget, is asking for a cut in Value Added Tax rates to 4 per cent.

The tobacco industry is simply hoping for a tax hike that is not too steep but they fear a new cess will be imposed like in most years.

But will investors gain today? The market isn’t too excited and Budget is expected to be a non event.

According to CNBC-TV18 analysis, no direction is expected from the market when trade opens. The market is expected to be fixed in a range depending on the US market.

Relief is expected in the market after the session.

Chidambaram Showers More Money On Sports

New Delhi: Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Friday allocated Rs 1,111.81 crore as total Sports Budget for 2008-09, an overall raise of Rs 254.34 crore over last year, with a special provision for the 2010 Commonwealth Games.

The Budget includes Rs 890 crore as plan outlay and Rs 221.81 crore as non-plan outlay.

"The Commonwealth Games are only 947 days away. As promised, we shall provide Rs 624 crore in 2008-09. I would urge the authorities concerned to adhere to the strict timelines and the quality standards," Chidambaram said in his Budget speech in Parliament on Friday.

The Commonwealth Games will be held in Delhi October 3-14, 2010.

The provision is meant for upgradation/renovation of the Sports Authority of India stadiums, tennis stadium, upgradation/creation of training venues and preparation of teams for the Games.

A provision has also been made for the grant of loans to the organising committee for holding the Games.

The Finance Minister also provided some relief to the sports good manufacturers.

"To provide a fillip to the manufacturers of sports goods, I propose to reduce the duty on specified machinery from 7.5 per cent to five per cent. I also propose to exempt from duty specified raw materials for sports goods," he said.

An amount of Rs 67.20 crore has been earmarked for different projects/schemes of Northeastern states, including Sikkim, for youth welfare scheme, sports and games.

Budget 2008 Brings Cheers To Middle Class

New Delhi: The Finance Minister brought cheer to lakhs of middle class families just as he announced the cut in taxes. The loan waiver for farmers may have been on expected lines, but the real surprise was the when the Finance Minister also extended his generosity to the tax paying middle class.

Finance Minister, P Chidambaram announced, "Salaries up to Rs 1,50,000 — nil, Rs 1,50,000 to Rs 3,00,000 — 10 per cent, Rs 3,00,000 to Rs 5, 00,000 —20 per cent, and Rs 5,00,001 and above 30 per cent.

The above line from the Finance Minister brought a smile to the faces of lakhs of middle class families like the Gulatis, a smart rejig of the income tax slabs bringing a hefty reduction in income tax across board, especially for those who are at the lower end of the tax bracket, women and senior citizens.

Advocate, S K Gulati says, "Our Finance Minister has given relief by increasing the tax limit to the general public. I'm happy about the cut in taxes."

Dr Shravan Kumar Chhabra says, "Inputs for the drug manufacturers duty cut have been made and that will go a long way in cutting down the cost of the medicines, also the 2.25 lakh tax cut for senior citizens makes me happy"

And the benefits will be substantial with an income of exactly Rs 5,00,000 per annum; one will now pay Rs 55,000 compared to Rs 99,000 earlier, which is — a neat saving of Rs 44,000.

The FM has also made a large number of items cheaper to buy, expect a cut of up to Rs 15,000 in the price of small cars, and motorcycles and scooters could be cheaper by Rs 2000.

Water purifiers and medicines have also got cheaper across the board.

The ladies of the Gulati household have mixed views on the budget as the lady of the house Lakshmi Gulati says, "Except water purifiers and cereals there is nothing really for housewives, I am disappointed."

For the salaried class there is very little to fault Mr Chidambaram, but for those with an inclination towards equities, take note that short-term capital gains tax has been hiked to 15 per cent from 10 per cent earlier.

So think before you do those quick daily trades as the FM's message is clear — it's better to be a long-term investor than a day trader.

Commodity Trading To Turn A Costly Affair

Mumbai: Introduction of commodity transaction tax (CTT) similar to that of securities transaction tax (STT) seems to have not gone well with the exchanges and broking firms alike.

Apart from the 12 per cent service tax, the Union budget has added an expenditure of 6 per cent as exchange levy and Rs 17 per lakh as CTT. These together are likely to increase the cost of trading in commodity futures by more than 800 per cent.

When STT was introduced in the securities market it was allowed to set off losses against profits from similar business. Moreover, the long and short term capital gains benefits extended to securities market has not been extended to commodities trading.

Jignesh Shah, MD & CEO, MCX, said: “Commodities markets are global asset class and trade flows to most efficient markets which has least trading cost. With the addition of commodities trading tax, Indian market will become unusable for risk management.”

P. H. Ravi Kumar, MD, NCDEX said: “Unlike securities markets, commodity markets perform the essential function of price discovery and the CTT will adversely affect the price discovery process. If and when CTT is to be introduced in commodity markets in future, it has to be done only with the related benefits already extended to the securities markets.”

Broking firms expect the volumes to come down as the cost of trading goes up. Sushil Sinha, Assistant General Manager, Karvy Commodities, said: “Introduction of CTT will shoo away investors and will also impact intra-day volumes. Liquidity may come under pressure”.

Dilip Bhatia, Director, Kotak Commodity Services, said: “CTT will affect the viability of trades for short term traders and arbitrageurs. In addition introduction of service tax on the services of commodity exchanges will further affect commodity businesses.”

Naveen Mathur, Head - Angel Commodities, said: “CTT would act as a dampner to commodities trading, being still in a nascent stage.”

On the positive, Jayant Manglik, Head - Commodity Business, Religare Commodities, said: “The Centre’s move shows increase in the government interest in expanding the commodity futures markets in line with equity markets and is a reiteration of the fact that investing in commodities is now an accepted investment avenue like in developed countries. It will also increase tax-compliance by default because the tax will be levied at the time of trading itself.”

Pepper Futures Continue Upward Run

Kochi: Pepper futures market continued its upward run on Friday on high speculation based on the sharp rise in Vietnam pepper. Investors were active selling futures and buying exchange delivered pepper. Budget 2008-09

Indian parity touched $4,250 a tonne (c&f). Vietnam was reportedly quoting FAQ 500 GL at $4,200 a tonne (fob) and 550 GL above $4,300 a tonne (fob). It was not offering Asta grade.

The rising trend in the prices has slowed down the domestic demand here, market sources told Business Line.

CONTRACT POSITION

March contract on NCDEX shot up by Rs 204 a quintal on Friday to Rs 15,962. The increase in all other contracts except June was from Rs 183 to Rs 510 a quintal. June declined by Rs 214 a quintal.

On NMCE, March contract moved up by Rs 145 a quintal to Rs 15,500. The rise in other contracts except August was from Rs 110 to Rs 181 a quintal. August dropped by Rs 98 a quintal.

Spot prices, in tandem with the futures market trend, increased by Rs 100 a quintal on Friday to close at Rs 14,800 (un-garbled) and Rs 15,400 (MG 1).

Spot Rubber Prices Improve

Kottayam: Spot market showed a positive trend on Friday. Sheet rubber firmed up by 50 paise to Rs 101 a kg at Kottayam while the grade closed steady at the same level in Kochi. The market responded positively to the Union Budget and firm global indices, an observer said. RSS 3 moved up to ¥294.3 (Rs 112.53) from ¥292 a kg at its April futures on TOCOM. The grade finished slightly better at Rs 112.46 against Rs 112.35 a kg at Bangkok.

Futures firm

The April futures for RSS 4 was firm at Rs 103.50 from Rs 102.75 a kg on MCX. The March futures improved to Rs 100.87 (100.02), April to Rs 103.68 (102.92), May to Rs 105.36 (104.40) and June to Rs 107.16 (106.20) per kg on NMCE. The open interest was 7,075 (7,056) tonnes with 3,984 (4,005) tonnes in March, 2,071 (2,040) tonnes in April, 688 (688) tonnes in May and 332 (323) tonnes in June. The volumes totalled 890 (1,507) lots.

Spot prices were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 101 (100.50); RSS-5: 99.50 (99); ungraded: 97 (96); ISNR 20: 99 (98.50) and latex 60 per cent: 68 (66).

Cardamom, Pepper To Benefit

Kochi: Special attention given to pepper and cardamom may have positive impact on these plantation crops. Replanting of the existing low yielding plantations with high yielding varieties could lead to increased productivity per hectare. However, its success will depend on how the replanting and new planting schemes are drawn up and implemented. Budget 2008-09

The average pepper yield per hectare in India is estimated at less than 400 kg as against over 2,000 kg in Vietnam. Similarly, the average productivity per hectare of cardamom is also at the lowest levels at below 300 kg. The low yield has resulted in high cost of production making these commodities uncompetitive in the world market.

Given this scenario, the announcement made in the Budget 2007-08 is a positive step in the right direction, provided effective mechanism is put in place for the implementation of schemes aimed at increasing the productivity.

The waiver of loans for small and marginal farmers would benefit a good number of cardamom and pepper growers spread over Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. A substantial number of cardamom growers fall under medium and major category who could be benefited by going for a one-time settlement with the banks.

The allocation of Rs 1,000 crore for horticulture crops, including coconut and cashew is also a positive step. The allocation for each crop and schemes for which it has been earmarked is yet to be known.